Saturday, November 3rd, 2012

I’m not really going out on a limb, here. I do think Romney will win the popular vote by slim margin—I’d say less than half a percentage point. But Obama will win the Electoral College, somewhat comfortably.

One lesson for Republicans: Stop hating on immigrants. Bush won about 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004. McCain took about 30 percent in 2008. Romney could well drop below 20 percent this year.

Thing is, Latinos tend to be culturally conservative. From the polls I’ve seen, the GOP doesn’t even really need to actively reach out to them. Just stop hating them. Stop with the “my border fence will be bigger than yours,” the English only stuff, “self-deportation,” and the laws that let cops harass anyone with brown skin. Do that, and the GOP  could probably lure back enough of the Latino vote to be competitive again, at least in the short term. As it stands, they’re likely going to lose New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado because of this. Even in Arizona, Romney’s lead is down to five points. Within a few election cycles, they might even need to start spending money in Texas.

MORE: I see Shikha Dalmia has already made this point more eloquently that I just did.


Digg it |  reddit | |  Fark

92 Responses to “Prediction”

  1. #1 |  Red | 

    BTW, come live in California if you like immigration so much. Once a shop goes majority Latino is become impossible for any other race to get a job there. They’re open and blatant racism going on against whites and Asians on a very regular basis in this state and no one cares.

  2. #2 |  Cyto | 

    On immigration and the republicans, note that GW Bush tried to do comprehensive immigration reform that would create “guest worker” style visas for foreign workers, pretty much solving the illegal immigration problem (they come here illegally so they can get work after all).

    Guess which party didn’t support him at all? In fact if I recall correctly they called him a racist and worse for suggesting such a thing.

    Neither party wants to solve problems. They want to gain tactical advantage. That’s why the TSA had to be a federal agency with a million new federal workers, not private security firms paid for by airports adhering to federal standards. That’s why health insurance reform has been ongoing for 20+ years. That’s why abortion keeps popping up. That’s why education reform doesn’t happen. Everybody wants to keep their issues that divide people into camps alive. Solving problems lets single issue voters off the reservation.

  3. #3 |  Cynical in New York | 


    Considering that Buchanan is considered the defacto leader of the Paleo movement I would say the SOB is a pretty good source on paleo thought. Most of his writings are him bitching about the system and subtly putting the blame on minorities. If it wasn’t for immigration and race, that cold war relic would be very irrelevant. (same would go for his liberal counterparts Sharpton and Jackson)


    Do you or do you not favor businesses making their own decisions on whoever they hire or fire? Conservatives can’t bitch about jobs not hiring their supporters while for years have supposedly defended a business’ owners right to run their shop the way they see fit. It’s hypocritical but then again I’m talking about conservatism.

  4. #4 |  SP | 

    I must correct you and then you can buy me a beer when you’re in the PNW next time. Romney will win with 281 electoral votes. Your errors are Colorado, Pennsylvania, and NH. He may also be able to get Ohio and Iowa in his column, but that is not necessary.

    It is so lame that the MSM discounted and ignored Gary Johnson. I guess that they are the King Makers…I can’t wait until their beloved establishment eventually crushes them.

  5. #5 |  Matt | 


    I doesn’t matter who you vote for. We all lose.

    Voting in a government election is an explicit act of granting other people permission to exert control over your one and only life.

    And the ‘winners’ take that permission to mean *everyone’s* life.

    Good luck with that.

    And thanks for fucking with my life without my consent.


  6. #6 |  Windy | 

    I cast my vote, already, I voted for Johnson. Since I am not allowed to vote for Ron Paul, I chose the second best candidate. In my State we do have a spot dedicated to write-ins on our ballot, but they are not counted nor recorded so writing in someone is a waste of ink and time.

  7. #7 |  Fred Mangels | 

    @ Matt. I consider voting an act of self- defense, if done properly and with principle.

  8. #8 |  Delta | 

    #21 | DoubleU: “I have never heard any republican hate immigrants, they want to stop illegal immigration yes, but they welcome the ones that want to come here legally and follow the rules to citizenship.”

    Quite a lot of irony between your post and the one immediately after it.

  9. #9 |  Delta | 

    #35 | Fred Mangels: “A couple months ago I decided I’d try and write a treatise of sorts on why the 2 parties dominate our system and why it’s so hard to break people away from it… If anyone knows of any writings on this subject, I’d be interested.”

    In political science, the fact that a plurality voting system results in a strategically stable state of two dominant parties is called Duverger’s Law.

    The achilles’ heel of the USA system is in not having set a system of proportional representation, i.e., being unable to deal with factions, as Washington knew at the time of his farewell address.

  10. #10 |  Umquay | 

    For all the disenchanted and realistic voters out there, I present some mediocre stand-up comedy on this years election:

    It is funny because it is true! Enjoy, folks.

  11. #11 |  JSL | 

    “the English only stuff,”

    I’m so tired of this argument. I studied in school or from real world experience spanish all my life on the west coast. I’m not fluent in spanish because I didn’t push myself hard enough and didn’t take my college prof’s advice of spending 6-12 months in a native speaking country on exchange aka immersion training. I had my obviously lefty high school spanish “profe” push the same idea, during the 3 years I took in high school. The educrats/teachers all then turn around and promote the dogma from the PC crowd that we need more ESL classes, can’t force them to speak english etc. etc.. Hogwash. If I’m going to go live in Mexico for even just a few years, I might want to learn the lingo and customs.

  12. #12 |  Fred Mangels | 

    Thanx, Delta. I’ll check it out.

  13. #13 |  croaker | 

    Obama will win re-election.

    Inside of two years Obama will become the 2nd sitting president to resign.

  14. #14 |  tariqata | 

    @JSL: Forgive my apparent ignorance of education in the US, but isn’t the whole point of ESL classes to … teach people how to speak English? That’s certainly what the term means where I come from.

  15. #15 |  C. S. P. Schofield | 


    The point of ESl classes, in the United States system of Public Education, is to assure the continued employment of Union certified teachers. Period. Test after test has confirmed the general impression that hispanic students steered into such classes by and large will not learn English.

    The entire system is run for the benefit of Union members. The fight to wrench priorities back to actually teaching has been going on for a long time, and even if it eventually succeeds it may take longer than the rest of my life; the Unions are that entrenched.

    Not everything that is wrong with public education in the U.S. was caused by the Unions, but the Unions have consistently opposed most efforts to rectify the problems.

    The one thing that might bring the conflict to an early end is the strong possibility of a child abuse scandal. While abusive teachers are probably not common by any means, abusive Priests weren’t either (they ran to about 3%, which coincidentally is about the same percentage as is found among married Protestant ministers), and the public schools and the Unions have done exactly what the Catholic Church did; cover up, deny, and reassign.

    For the moment the mainstream media isn’t interested in connecting the dots, although they will run the occasional story. But the media are in big financial trouble. They desperately need readers/viewers. If they decided to start a Crusade, there might not be one hell of a lot left of Union power when the smoke cleared.

    I ain’t holding my breath, though.

  16. #16 |  Onlooker | 

    Hey Radley! Do you know that your home page link takes you to a dead end at March 21?

  17. #17 |  Onlooker | 

    OK, disregard that. Apparently my browser was doing a weird thing with the cache or something and displaying that erroneous page. I refreshed and it’s right now. I’ve never seen that in this kind of way (i.e. on a main home page). Usually happens with embedded charts/pics and such that are updated regularly.


  18. #18 |  The Late Andy Rooney | 

    Are we talking about bilingual or ESL here? Isn’t there a difference? I’ve taught ESL on a volunteer basis, and the goal was to teach students English and familiarize them with our culture. At least, that was my goal, and I was never told to do otherwise.

  19. #19 |  Burgers Allday | 


    quoted from the VC blog:

    Several people asked me what I thought about Gov. Romney’s statement during the third presidential debate about indicting Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for incitement to genocide:

    Secondly, I’d take on diplomatic isolation efforts. I’d make sure that Ahmadinejad is indicted under the Genocide Convention. His words amount to genocide incitation. I would indict him for it.

  20. #20 |  Boyd Durkin | 

    After reading these comments I find myself saying “fuck FDR” as he started or added to most all of these problems. The people gave him 12 years in office, so I guess this is what they deserve.

    @#63: Presidents don’t resign. The two gangs have an agreement and being held accountable isn’t good for either of them.

  21. #21 |  John C. Randolph | 

    I think Romney’s going to win it because the economy’s in the crapper. I also expect him to be a one-term president for the same reason.


  22. #22 |  James D | 

    The state polls get +6 to +11 more Dem voters and still it’s that close? Unless Dems get out the illegal/dead votes en masse, I think Romney wins easily.

    What I think should be proposed as a compromise (and will never happen) is what many states do (like LA I think?) where we have 2 elections:
    First election, ANYONE can run and everyone votes for who they really want.
    Second election is between the top 2 vote getters.

    That way, if you live in liberal county, you might get to vote between a Dem and Green person. And if you live in more conservative area you might get a Rep and Libertarian person to choose from. And for the Presidential election … who knows what could happen. This would eliminate the “you’re throwing your vote away” or “you’re helping the other side” BS then. Of course it’s too logical and would hurt the 2 major parties … so it’ll never happen.

    I might vote for a Gary Johnson type candidate in those circumstances, but since it’s down to 4 more years of Obama or not … I’m going for ‘not’ thank you.

  23. #23 |  Meiczyslaw | 

    Radley —

    Wit’ all due respect, you’re wrong on your prediction, and badly.

    Romney’s going to win, and in a landslide.

    But, to be fair, the pollsters are lying to you. I don’t think D+11 is a reasonable estimate of the electorate, especially since Romney’s winning independents, and party identification is currently R+6.

    (I’m a little hard on the pollsters when I say they’re lying. The truth is that their likely voter screens have been much too loose this cycle.)

  24. #24 |  Peyton | 

    You’ve got it about backwards, Radley. R-295; O-243. Sorry to ruin the suspense tomorrow.

  25. #25 |  Chicagojon | 

    I predict that whichever ‘side’ wins they will lose seats in 2 years because sheeples believe that it’s important to have “checks and balances” in our “democracy”.

    The middle ground issues that Dave Krueger mentioned above will all be worked on, rich people will get richer, poor people will get (relatively) poorer (but richer people will say the poor are better off because of the quality of their electronics and drugs), the nations infrastructure will continue to collapse and/or not keep up with the rest of the world, more cameras, more cops, more intrusive local government, more international meddling, & the China/US trade imbalance will merrily grow along for another 4 years. You know, typical American value stuff.

    2.5 years from now some new idiot (unquestionably male, almost certainly white) will start talking about how China is bad, Iran is dangerous, the party in power is doing a terrible job, we all would have been better off without Bush, & change is needed.

    4 years from now another billion (maybe 2?) will be spent to put a new guy in the big chair – likely via a party swap because Reagan-Reagan-BushI taught us that 12 consecutive years of anything is a bad idea.

    Oh – and Ohio as the representation of everything that is wrong with this system (most visits, money spent, idiot electorate, shitty state) will continue to piss me off — jackasses.

  26. #26 |  Kent | 

    “Unless Dems get out the illegal/dead votes en masse, I think Romney wins easily.”

    Woman arrested in Las Vegas for alleged voter fraud
    By Kristi Jourdan

    “Larry Lomax, Clark County registrar of voters, said Rubin is a registered Republican……”

  27. #27 |  Kent | 


  28. #28 |  Nando | 

    I disagree with the numbers posted. I think Obama wins both the EC and PV, and I think he takes VA (303-235 is my count). Florida is pretty close, but I’m thinking Romney takes it by the slimmest of margins. It might even cause the lawyers to come out of the woodwork and try to sue due to election law violations or discrimination, but it won’t matter.

  29. #29 |  James D | 

    Picture ID (which the Dems always oppose) would have proven her right or a liar huh? And I’ll take your onesy/twosey Rep fraud and raise you:

    and a whole bunch of this going on (in other states too):

    and Nando, you’re dreaming …. if Obama pulls it out, it’ll be by a 1 state EV victory … no way he’s anywhere near 300 EVs unless all of the fraud above really is widespread.

  30. #30 |  Kent | 

    James, yeah it’s all over the place. It’s red vs blue, tabloid politics, see who can fuck the country the fastest, all wrapped in red, white and blue too. I was only pointing out the fact that team red’s rigging elections the same as team blue. Picture ID? Seems they caught her regardless, you probably support a national ID too, huh? Drones over our sky’s, the Patriot Act? Big Daddy Gov?

  31. #31 |  Charlie O | 

    Me personally, I’m doing MUCH better now, than four years ago economically. But I attribute that primarily to the fact that I have skills that in demand but not readily available.

    That said, I cannot support anyone in the GOP due mainly to their so-called “base” of religious fanatics. There are just too many religious crazies embraced by the GOP or are leaders in the GOP. I can’t support anyone who thinks he/she should be able to use legislation to impose their interpretations of their mythical holy book on the masses.

    Religion is a curse on humanity. The world will be a much safer place once it is eliminated from this planet. (well that and the police).

  32. #32 |  el coronado | 

    ….so IOW, Charlie, your holier-than-thou disdain for the ‘religious crazies’ and what you perceive as their crazy notions makes you……exactly like them. Just from a different direction.

    I love the smell of irony in the morning.

  33. #33 |  Meiczyslaw | 

    Religion is a curse on humanity. The world will be a much safer place once it is eliminated from this planet.

    Never mind that the worst democides were perpetuated by atheists.

    You’re making a mistake by railing against religion; the problem is human nature, and removing religion just changes the excuse used to behave badly.

  34. #34 |  James D | 

    Secular Atheism is just as much a religion as anything else …. and what Meiczyslaw said ….

  35. #35 |  Charlie O | 

    You couldn’t be more wrong el coronado. No holier than thou from me. I have no holy book to beat anyone with. If you don’t like abortions, don’t have one. If you don’t like liquor stores open on Sunday, don’t go in them. If you don’t like titty bars, don’t go in them. If you don’t like gay marriage, don’t have one. But don’t use your holy book as an excuse to tell me I can’t do anything of things either. I believe in live and let live. Leave me alone, I’ll leave you alone. But your holy book is meaningless to me, so holds no sway as excuse for law.

  36. #36 |  el coronado | 

    A lovely set of rationalizations, there, Charlie, but you’re still doing exactly what you claim to hate when the other side does it. It’s clear you’re a knee-jerk liberal democrat. Fine. Super. But explain for us how your party handles that “don’t have one” deal when it’s *their* bull being gored.

    Do they say, “If you don’t like handguns, don’t have one!”?
    Do they say, “If you don’t want to mine coal on your own land, don’t!”?
    Do they say, “If you don’t want to join a union, don’t!”?

    No, of course they don’t. So you don’t want religious folks “using their holy book to tell [you] you can’t do any” of the stuff they don’t like….but you evidently have no problem with _your_ boys using _their_ holy ideology to tell *me* I can’t do what I want to do. As I said earlier, it’s clear you’re a knee-jerk liberal democrat. So why would a guy like you be on a Libertarian site?

  37. #37 |  James D | 

    another to add to my list above:

  38. #38 |  Charlie O | 

    el coronado.

    You’re a complete idiot. I said I could not support the GOP because of their religiosity. Never brought the Democratic party into the conversation. I agree, no one should be forced to join a union, I own guns, lots of them. You have absolutely no understanding of my argument about forcing purely religious views on others via legislation.

  39. #39 |  James D | 

    Well I’m man enough to come back here and admit I’m wrong … and now I really understand why lots of libertarians won’t even bother voting:

    My wife volunteered and worked at a polling place yesterday and I’ve lost all faith in the validitity of our elections because of it …. she said like 35% of the people who came in there couldn’t even speak english and said stuff like “I don’t remember who I’m supposed to vote for” and more than 50% of the people said they just registered this year through the DES (Deparment of Economic Security) … so in other words, most voters were on the “public dole” … no wonder Obama won …..

    We’ve officially hit European Socialism-level of stupidity and everyone is voting for their ‘free stuff’ …..

  40. #40 |  el coronado | 

    Well, Hell, if’n it’s a *manliness* deal, I reckon I gotta admit I was also wrong. About the election. About _Charlie_….naw, I’m dead on, all his amusingly outraged squeals to the contrary.

    Charlie me foine boyo, I’m goan type this here part reeeeeeal slow, so concentrate, OK? This being America (for a little while longer, hopefully), you’re free to hold any idiotic, infantile, halfwitted political views you want to. But when you try to justify those views by telling us the ‘other party’s positions’ ‘forced you into voting this way’, and then trot out *absolute horseshit* as your synopsis of those positions…..well, it’s gonna be pointed out you’re full of shit.

    Read this part real careful-like, m’kay? Unless you can trot out genuine citations to the contrary – and you can’t – the ONLY political movement in the world of any size that believes in “forcing purely religious views on others via legislation” is fundamentalist ISLAM. Not them eeeebil narrowminded rightwing mouthbreathin’ backwoods inbred hillbilly Christian boogeymen you’re so pathetically worried about, the way teacher instructed you to think back in skuel.

    But the election? Yeah, I was wrong.

  41. #41 |  Medicine Man | 

    So, James D, let me get this straight. You’re man enough to come back and admit you called the outcome of the election wrong but the results nevertheless confirm all of your biases. Well done sir.

  42. #42 |  James D | 

    I admit I’m wrong about the prediction … my ‘biases’ were actually less than what seems to have actually happened. What I’m angry/disillusioned about is that the majority of voters are NOT like the people coming to this site and likely aren’t paying attention to debates, or news, or details, or facts at all. They are either outright illegal voters or people so far on the public dole that they will always vote liberal/socialist for the ‘free stuff’.

    So you’re ‘gotcha’ comment just wasn’t paying attention.