Comments on: Do 90 Percent of the Guns Used in Mexican Drug Crimes Really Come From America?

By: Whitney

Whitney — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 21:31:35 +0000

Jason, if you understand statistics as you say you will know that it’s important to get your assumptions right. You keep saying “assuming the guns submitted to the ATF were a random sample.” If that were true, you’d be right, but this is not a word problem. The Mexican police are not doing a scientific study, constructing a carefully controlled randomized sample. If they find a gun that might have come from the U.S., they send it in for tracing. If they can tell at a glance that a gun didn’t come from the U.S., why would they bother sending it in?
Now I could be wrong; in truth I have no idea how they decide which guns to send in and which not to. But you’re going pretty far out on a limb talking about random samples. That’s almost certainly *not* what’s going on.

By: Jason

Jason — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 17:22:55 +0000

Thanks Nick! So the number is probably closer to 55% assuming what was turned into the ATF was a random sample.

perlhaqr, your post gave me a good laugh, thanks. I will be using it as an example in a class I’m TA’ing in the fall.

Michael Chaney, thank you. I didn’t know that the comments section has such a high grammatical standard. Clearly the BEST place to start is by pointing out that I put a space between “fire” and “arms”. When YOU are posting on behalf of a group of people, please include their names too. I feel a little rude when I can only address you and not the others you are posting for.

By: Michael

Michael — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 17:18:39 +0000

#19 Jason,

You need to bone up on your CSI. I saw, on one of those “cop” shows, the technique used to identify the serial numbers on guns, that had them removed with a grinder. As soon as the acid was applied, the numbers, still permanently, stamped in the metal, were visible. They cannot remove the number completely by only grinding it off of the surface.

That is why the report is so important. If the guns had US serial numbers, they would be found! If not, they came from elsewhere!

It is all just a plot to move the assault ban through, again! I would like to know if there was any scientific evidence, or study, that showed the results of that assault weapon ban. I would bet, any positive effects are non-existent!

By: Michael Chaney

Michael Chaney — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 01:10:50 +0000

I don’t know enough about fire arms

Well, Jason, let’s start with the fact that it’s a single word: “firearm”.

By: Do 90 Percent of the Guns Used in Mexican Drug Crimes Really Come From America? | qbit.cc

Sun, 05 Apr 2009 21:50:57 +0000

[...] Friday, April 3rd, 2009 The Agitator [...]

By: v

Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:34:31 +0000

Via WaPo – http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/04/AR2009040402596.html?hpid=news-col-blog – a kid is driven to suicide by his school’s pot policy.

By: annemg

annemg — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 18:49:40 +0000

I was going to respond to Jason, but I’m just going to agree with #28 Nick M.

By: Psychopolitik 2.0 » Bits & pieces

Psychopolitik 2.0 » Bits & pieces — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 17:42:26 +0000

[...] Shorter Radley Balko, on the weaponry of the Mexican drug cartels: “With us gringos buying the corrupt Mexican government & their defecting soldiers whatever they want, they don’t need no steenking straw purchases!” [...]

By: Do 90 Percent of the Guns Used in Mexican Drug Crimes Really Come From America? @ Triceratops Tone

Sat, 04 Apr 2009 16:44:39 +0000

[...] Do 90 Percent of the Guns Used in Mexican Drug Crimes Really Come From America?. From Hillary Clinton to Diane Feinstein to Bob Schieffer to the New York Times, gun control [...]

By: Andre Kenji

Andre Kenji — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 02:03:38 +0000

Here in Brazil American rifles were very popular among drug gangs. The AR-15 was a household name among kids in the 1990´s.

But Brazil has no border with the US, and they can buy guns anywhere. The illegal gun trade along the border of Bolivia and Paraguay and Brazil is very well know.

By: Nick M.

Nick M. — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 01:34:09 +0000

“It is possible to remove or destroy the serial number stamp on a gun. My bet is that most of these guns had numbers at some point had a number that was destroyed when it entered the black market.

I don’t know enough about fire arms to really make any statement about what is needed to trace them…”

Jason,

it is possible to remove serial number stamps. However, it is extremely obvious when this is done. It leave a mark. These guns are sent back to the U.S. for attempted tracing. It’s not like these people are taking off the serial numbers and then refinishing the gun to make it look nice and new. Once again, why would they take the time to go through this trouble when they can get guns from other place for way less than you can in the U.S.

By: Billy Beck

Billy Beck — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 20:52:14 +0000

“In other words, not only are U.S. politicians flat lying when they say that 90 percent of the guns used in Mexico’s drug war are coming from U.S. gun dealers recklessly selling legal American guns to cartel straw buyers…”

There, Radley. I trimmed the hedge for you.

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 20:11:10 +0000

As to the 150,000 number… In one CNN article, they claim 150,000 desertions in six months in the “highlights” section and 150,000 over six years in the body. 20,000+ a year is pretty high, but if someone were to count…say…conscripted military personnel that weren’t really on active duty or decided not to show up because of the area they were going to be assigned… It’s still a long-shot.

By: mark

mark — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 19:54:08 +0000

i live in juarez, basically in the heart of the problem, the guns that the cartel uses are NOT from the military i can assure you, the military has equipment from the 70´s the cartels have state of the art.
and also the defections number i´ts a lie.

By: perlhaqr

perlhaqr — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 19:40:11 +0000

I don’t know enough about fire arms

Well, that’s the most truthful statement you’ve made yet, Jason.

By: RAH

RAH — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 19:14:57 +0000

The total guns according to report finds at Mexico crime scenes were 29,000. From that number about 5000 had US markings and serial number and was traced. (90% of the 5000 were traced) Being traced does not mean anything other than manufactured and sold in the US. It is not an indication of criminal use.

Now the US military does sell M16’s to Mexico and they may be a lot of those diverted and now in the hands of cartels. Many US weapons meant for others have ended on black markets all over the world. Google the amount of armament that has been lost in Iraq and Afghanistan.

AK47’s are not made in the US but AK103 was licensed by Russia to be manufactured in Venezuela. RPG’s and grenades are not sold on the civilian market in the US and not available for casual purchase, so those that the cartels have, come from other countries and are smuggled. These cartels are expert smugglers and it is not surprising that they are good at getting goods smuggled in and smuggled out as they want.

By: SJE

SJE — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:58:22 +0000

Perlhaqr: you and your pesky numbers!

The other issue, made clear in Radley’s article, is that most of the weapons used by the gangs are not the sort that are legal in the USA. It’s impossible for the numbers to add up to a big US source problem (except for the M16s, that is)

By: Bob

Bob — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:57:57 +0000

I thought that statistic was total bullshit. It is simply ludicrous to think that Mexican cartels are smuggling expensive weapons over our border when cheap, full auto assault weapons are available on the global Black Market.

I HAVE to assume that Mexican cartels have access to the global Black Market.

Next question: What percentage of the guns coming from the US were initially purchased by civilians… and what percentage were supplied by the US government to Mexico?

By: perlhaqr

perlhaqr — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:23:31 +0000

Jason: Radley may need to take a stats class, I can’t say. But you need to take a basic math class.

From the linked article at Fox:

In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced — and of those, 90 percent — 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover — were found to have come from the U.S.

But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.

In other words, 68 percent of the guns that were recovered were never submitted for tracing. And when you weed out the roughly 6,000 guns that could not be traced from the remaining 32 percent, it means 83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S.

11,000 / 29,000 = .3793 or 37.93% of firearms recovered were offered to the ATF for tracing.

6,000 were successfully traced by the ATF.

6,000 / 11,000 = .5454 or 54.54% were actually traced.

5,114 / 6,000 = .8523, or 85.23% were traced to US sources.

5,114 guns from US sources, of a total of 29,000 recovered in Mexico from drug crime scenes.

5,114 / 29,000 = .1763, or 17.63% of the total firearms recovered, had a US source.

Clear enough, yet?

By: Jason

Jason — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:23:04 +0000

“It’s probably not far off. If the gun doesn’t have a serial number, or doesn’t have indications that a serial number was there and was filed off, it wasn’t manufactured in the U.S. At least not legally.”

It is possible to remove or destroy the serial number stamp on a gun. My bet is that most of these guns had numbers at some point had a number that was destroyed when it entered the black market.

I don’t know enough about fire arms to really make any statement about what is needed to trace them, but I do know that the math in the Fox article is very misleading. The post by “Chance” also shows that someone is not really checking the numbers on the number of defections either.