TheAgitator.com
Do 90 Percent of the Guns Used in Mexican Drug Crimes Really Come From America?
Friday, April 3rd, 2009From Hillary Clinton to Diane Feinstein to Bob Schieffer to the New York Times, gun control proponents keep repeating the claim that 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico’s drug war were sold in the United States.
William La Jeunesse and Maxim Lott say it just isn’t true. As it turns out, the 90 percent statistic actually concerns only those guns Mexican authorities sent to the U.S. for tracing. Since the U.S. really has no means of tracing guns not manufactured in the U.S., Mexican authorities don’t bother sending U.S. officials guns that were obviously manufactured elsewhere (generally guns that lack a U.S. serial number, or don’t show signs of once having had one). So the 90 percent figure isn’t surprising, and it isn’t really alarming. It means that 90 percent of the guns Mexican authorities thought were probably made and sold in the U.S. were indeed made and sold in the U.S.
But that’s not what gun control proponents have been saying. They’ve been saying nine of 10 guns used in all Mexican drug crimes came from the U.S. That number, La Jeunesse and Lott report, is closer to 17 percent.
The report explains that most of the weapons used by Mexico’s drug cartels are actually illegal in the U.S. Even if they weren’t, it makes little sense to suggest drug cartels are going through the hassle of sending thousands of “straw buyers” across the border to legally purchase guns in America when more powerful black market weapons are available from Russia, South America, China, and Guatemala without the bureaucracy and risk of registration. The L.A. Times hinted at as much in an article a couple of weeks ago, but seemed to miss the obvious connection that if the cartels are arming up with black market weapons unavailable in the U.S., the 90 percent figure trumpeted by U.S. politicians probably isn’t correct.
Here’s the other thing: According to one Mexican official, 150,000 Mexican soldiers have defected in the last year, taking their government-issued M-16s with them. Those guns are ending up in the hands of drug dealers. The U.S. is also continually sending more money and arms to Mexico to support President Calderon’s military crackdown on the drug trade, but we send all of that aid knowing the high rate of defection among both soldiers and Mexican police officers, and the high rate of corruption and high percentage of Mexican officials on the cartels’ payrolls. One firearms expert told LaJeunesse and Lott that some guns…
“…are legitimately shipped to the government of Mexico, by Colt, for example, in the United States. They are approved by the U.S. government for use by the Mexican military service. The guns end up in Mexico that way — the fully auto versions — they are not smuggled in across the river.”
In other words, not only are U.S. politicians flat wrong when they say that 90 percent of the guns used in Mexico’s drug war are coming from U.S. gun dealers recklessly selling legal American guns to cartel straw buyers, they’re ignoring the fact that a not-insignificant number of the guns used by the cartels likely came from the U.S. government, in the form of the drug war aid.
Yet the federal government’s strategy, as outlined by Hillary Clinton last week, is apparently to harass legitimate U.S. gun dealers while sending more weapons and money to the Mexican government. More power for the government, less freedom for the citizenry. Seems about consistent with politicians’ solution to most problems.
Love your blog. Just to be clear, is the first sentence supposed to say “gun control _opponents_ ” or “gun control _proponents_” ?
United States straw purchases is a straw man?
Drug warriors (and 2nd Amendment haters) are dissembling propogandists?
The press unthinkingly parrots what comes out of any government official’s lying mouth?
Who’d a thunk it?
I think it’s perfectly logical to assume that Mexican drug cartels, being the honest law abiding citizens that they are, buy their weapons in the U.S. where gun laws are practically non-existent and it’s a simple matter to walk into any gun store and load up. That is, in fact, why a law that prevents the sale of guns in the U.S. would be so effective. Once the law was passed, Mexicans would have to shop for guns elsewhere or face the very scary risk of breaking U.S. laws. Makes perfect sense. A few extra laws would bring that violence in Mexico to an immediate end.
…150,000 Mexican soldiers have defected in the last year…
Jesus Christ. No wonder they’re losing the war.
There are probably a fair amount of easily smuggled handguns from the U.S. market (both underground and legal market) used by the Mexican drug cartel.
Likewise, I have previously heard that a substantial amount of the fully automatic firearms used by the drug cartel originated from either the Mexican Army or the Mexican police.
And, since our government provides financial assistance and weapons to the Mexican government, indirectly our Government is responsible for arming the drug cartel.
Whatwhatwhat? Misleading statistics used by the gov’t to further restrict freedom here? In the DRUG WAR?
Man, I was all set to have another great day in this glorious worker’s paradise….
Good to see that the Democrats are just as good as the Republicans in playing fast and loose with, y’know, FACTS.
I knew that was BS all along…. there was no way we supplied all those weapons.
I mean, I understand that we can load up on AK47s, grenade launchers, Light Anti-tank Weapons (LAWs), shoulder fire rockets, Claymore mines, M16s, M4s, vehicle mounted 50 caliber machine guns, and Swiss army knifes, at the local gun or pawn shop. What I do not understand, is how do we get it past that wall?
I think Fox News and Radley need to take a statistics class. The 90% number is probably wrong (it is based on the assumption that the distribution of the country of origin for the traceable weapons is the same for the untraceable), but it is only missing a word, “traceable.” 90% of all traceable weapons come from the US (assuming that the sample provided to the ATF was a random sample and there is no bias) The 17% number is just flat out a lie. In order for the 17% number to be true, it would mean that all untraceable guns AND all traceable guns not examined by the ATF did not come form the US.
That is laughable
Why would a Mexican gangster pay $400-1200 for a semi-auto, stripped down joke of an AK-47 from the states when they can head southward and buy the real deal for $50?
As for the high explosives and military ordinance the cartels have – yeah, that is interesting – how did they get it? Something tells me they didn’t buy it at wally-world. I’d like to see the dates on the relevant ordinance to see when it was manufactured. Something tells me most of it will be from the 80s when we had lots of secret wars and intelligence side projects in Latin America.
I love the fact that our government has armed the enemy once again with our own weapons.
On an unrelated note, AR prices have doubled here in rural Kentucky.
errr. make that related. my bad.
The 17% number is just flat out a lie. In order for the 17% number to be true, it would mean that all untraceable guns AND all traceable guns not examined by the ATF did not come form the US.
It’s probably not far off. If the gun doesn’t have a serial number, or doesn’t have indications that a serial number was there and was filed off, it wasn’t manufactured in the U.S. At least not legally.
And the argument is that legally-manufactured U.S. guns are arming the Mexican drug cartels.
Sounds like the same people that do the stats for M.A.D.D.Soon they’ll want road blocks guns and drugs,then cigarettes and trans fat.All for the children.
Sounds like the stinger missiles, other weapons and training we provided to those plucky freedom fighters in Afghanistan about 30 years ago.
Guys, we can’t be letting facts get in the way of our drug war! It is for the chillren!
AR prices in Vermont/NH have shot way up, too. But, most bought prior to Obama taking office.
I just talked to an AR dealer and he brought up that most private citizens in Israel go to market packing in order to increase their safety. But, the argument that gun ownership makes you less safe is used here. Hmm. I’m sure it is a unfair comparison.
“150,000 Mexican soldiers have defected in the last year, taking their government-issued M-16s with them.”
The official is probably conflating “desertion” with “defection”. I can easily believe that many desertions, but if that many troops had defected – presumably meaning joined one cartel or the other – I suspect the war would be over and the cartels would have completely taken over, since the active Mexican military is only 192,770 strong (assuming a drug lord hasn’t vandalized the wikipedia page). Did 78% of Mexican troops really defect? Even if you look at the 500K+ total military size, that’s over a fifth of your troops turing on you. No government or army could withstand that for long. 15,000 defections, that I could believe.
Then again, maybe it is true.
“It’s probably not far off. If the gun doesn’t have a serial number, or doesn’t have indications that a serial number was there and was filed off, it wasn’t manufactured in the U.S. At least not legally.”
It is possible to remove or destroy the serial number stamp on a gun. My bet is that most of these guns had numbers at some point had a number that was destroyed when it entered the black market.
I don’t know enough about fire arms to really make any statement about what is needed to trace them, but I do know that the math in the Fox article is very misleading. The post by “Chance” also shows that someone is not really checking the numbers on the number of defections either.
Jason: Radley may need to take a stats class, I can’t say. But you need to take a basic math class.
From the linked article at Fox:
In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced — and of those, 90 percent — 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover — were found to have come from the U.S.
But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.
In other words, 68 percent of the guns that were recovered were never submitted for tracing. And when you weed out the roughly 6,000 guns that could not be traced from the remaining 32 percent, it means 83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S.
11,000 / 29,000 = .3793 or 37.93% of firearms recovered were offered to the ATF for tracing.
6,000 were successfully traced by the ATF.
6,000 / 11,000 = .5454 or 54.54% were actually traced.
5,114 / 6,000 = .8523, or 85.23% were traced to US sources.
5,114 guns from US sources, of a total of 29,000 recovered in Mexico from drug crime scenes.
5,114 / 29,000 = .1763, or 17.63% of the total firearms recovered, had a US source.
Clear enough, yet?
I thought that statistic was total bullshit. It is simply ludicrous to think that Mexican cartels are smuggling expensive weapons over our border when cheap, full auto assault weapons are available on the global Black Market.
I HAVE to assume that Mexican cartels have access to the global Black Market.
Next question: What percentage of the guns coming from the US were initially purchased by civilians… and what percentage were supplied by the US government to Mexico?
Perlhaqr: you and your pesky numbers!
The other issue, made clear in Radley’s article, is that most of the weapons used by the gangs are not the sort that are legal in the USA. It’s impossible for the numbers to add up to a big US source problem (except for the M16s, that is)
The total guns according to report finds at Mexico crime scenes were 29,000. From that number about 5000 had US markings and serial number and was traced. (90% of the 5000 were traced) Being traced does not mean anything other than manufactured and sold in the US. It is not an indication of criminal use.
Now the US military does sell M16’s to Mexico and they may be a lot of those diverted and now in the hands of cartels. Many US weapons meant for others have ended on black markets all over the world. Google the amount of armament that has been lost in Iraq and Afghanistan.
AK47’s are not made in the US but AK103 was licensed by Russia to be manufactured in Venezuela. RPG’s and grenades are not sold on the civilian market in the US and not available for casual purchase, so those that the cartels have, come from other countries and are smuggled. These cartels are expert smugglers and it is not surprising that they are good at getting goods smuggled in and smuggled out as they want.
I don’t know enough about fire arms
Well, that’s the most truthful statement you’ve made yet, Jason.
i live in juarez, basically in the heart of the problem, the guns that the cartel uses are NOT from the military i can assure you, the military has equipment from the 70´s the cartels have state of the art.
and also the defections number i´ts a lie.
As to the 150,000 number… In one CNN article, they claim 150,000 desertions in six months in the “highlights” section and 150,000 over six years in the body. 20,000+ a year is pretty high, but if someone were to count…say…conscripted military personnel that weren’t really on active duty or decided not to show up because of the area they were going to be assigned… It’s still a long-shot.
“In other words, not only are U.S. politicians flat lying when they say that 90 percent of the guns used in Mexico’s drug war are coming from U.S. gun dealers recklessly selling legal American guns to cartel straw buyers…”
There, Radley. I trimmed the hedge for you.
“It is possible to remove or destroy the serial number stamp on a gun. My bet is that most of these guns had numbers at some point had a number that was destroyed when it entered the black market.
I don’t know enough about fire arms to really make any statement about what is needed to trace them…”
Jason,
it is possible to remove serial number stamps. However, it is extremely obvious when this is done. It leave a mark. These guns are sent back to the U.S. for attempted tracing. It’s not like these people are taking off the serial numbers and then refinishing the gun to make it look nice and new. Once again, why would they take the time to go through this trouble when they can get guns from other place for way less than you can in the U.S.
Here in Brazil American rifles were very popular among drug gangs. The AR-15 was a household name among kids in the 1990´s.
But Brazil has no border with the US, and they can buy guns anywhere. The illegal gun trade along the border of Bolivia and Paraguay and Brazil is very well know.
[...] Do 90 Percent of the Guns Used in Mexican Drug Crimes Really Come From America?. From Hillary Clinton to Diane Feinstein to Bob Schieffer to the New York Times, gun control [...]
[...] Shorter Radley Balko, on the weaponry of the Mexican drug cartels: “With us gringos buying the corrupt Mexican government & their defecting soldiers whatever they want, they don’t need no steenking straw purchases!” [...]
I was going to respond to Jason, but I’m just going to agree with #28 Nick M.
Via WaPo – http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/04/AR2009040402596.html?hpid=news-col-blog – a kid is driven to suicide by his school’s pot policy.
[...] Friday, April 3rd, 2009 The Agitator [...]
Well, Jason, let’s start with the fact that it’s a single word: “firearm”.
#19 Jason,
You need to bone up on your CSI. I saw, on one of those “cop” shows, the technique used to identify the serial numbers on guns, that had them removed with a grinder. As soon as the acid was applied, the numbers, still permanently, stamped in the metal, were visible. They cannot remove the number completely by only grinding it off of the surface.
That is why the report is so important. If the guns had US serial numbers, they would be found! If not, they came from elsewhere!
It is all just a plot to move the assault ban through, again! I would like to know if there was any scientific evidence, or study, that showed the results of that assault weapon ban. I would bet, any positive effects are non-existent!
Thanks Nick! So the number is probably closer to 55% assuming what was turned into the ATF was a random sample.
perlhaqr, your post gave me a good laugh, thanks. I will be using it as an example in a class I’m TA’ing in the fall.
Michael Chaney, thank you. I didn’t know that the comments section has such a high grammatical standard. Clearly the BEST place to start is by pointing out that I put a space between “fire” and “arms”. When YOU are posting on behalf of a group of people, please include their names too. I feel a little rude when I can only address you and not the others you are posting for.
Jason, if you understand statistics as you say you will know that it’s important to get your assumptions right. You keep saying “assuming the guns submitted to the ATF were a random sample.” If that were true, you’d be right, but this is not a word problem. The Mexican police are not doing a scientific study, constructing a carefully controlled randomized sample. If they find a gun that might have come from the U.S., they send it in for tracing. If they can tell at a glance that a gun didn’t come from the U.S., why would they bother sending it in?
Now I could be wrong; in truth I have no idea how they decide which guns to send in and which not to. But you’re going pretty far out on a limb talking about random samples. That’s almost certainly *not* what’s going on.