TheAgitator.com
Ryan Frederick’s Thug Life
Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009In this passage of John Wilburn’s summary of Paul Ebert’s closing, Ebert is recalling the testimony of an alleged marijuana expert. Ebert’s trying to make the case that Frederick is a big-time pot dealer.
Meinhart says 1 plant produces 1 pound of salable marijuana. 1 pound is 16 ounces, and at $400.00 per ounce is $6400.00 times 10 plants is $64000.00.
Which of course would explain why Ryan Frederick got up at 4am each morning to deliver soft drinks.
Rule 1 of religion, litigation and life: if they have to lie to you, then they’re wrong.
Is Mary J really that much for an ounce?
That marijuana expert is full of shit.
Plants grown indoors typically yield much less than a pound per plant.
Not that I’ve ever grown pot, just sayin…
govts are almost always wrong about how much private industry can produce…
GodDAMN. Will Mr. Wilburn kindly explain who, exactly, is buying an ounce for $400.00?!? Because I’d really like to inform them that they’re getting ripped off… pretty severely.
A plant grown outdoors that takes 9 months from seed to harvest can yield up to one pound of marijuana, but this is low-grade which might sell for $1,000 per pound.
Depending on your indoor set-up (hydro, aero, soil, etc.) and the particular strain your growing, you can sell weed for up to $400 per ounce, but with indoor plants you will be lucky to get one ounce per plant.
So their math is right, but their numbers are in all the wrong places.
(Not that I would know anything about growing marijuana)
Radley,
I’m curious if you had helped in trial strategery for RF’s defense? I mean, you’ve got some incredibly great points, and I would be a bit disappointed if some of what you have articulated here on your site was not used.
Seriously, if the state is going to act like a bunch of idiots, might as well mock their lack of intelligence, too.
As the world’s only libertarian who has never actually seen marijuana (at least as far as I know), I can assure you I wouldn’t have a clue how much it costs or how much one could grow in a given place. However, I am a hard-liner on so-called expert testimony so I wonder about the credentials of the expert. Given that the U.S. government continues to virtually prohibit cultivation and experiments with marijuana, how could he have the knowledge he claims such that his conclusions could be achieved with any sort of rigor? Inquiring minds want to know.
The defense should have outright scoffed at the prosecutor’s allegations and pointed out (in closing, in front of the jury) that they have neither put up nor shut up. Not only do they have no direct evidence of him selling any pot, they don’t have any evidence that he is squirreling away extra income either.
And, it’s extra income that’s likely about twice what he makes in his day job. Just to throw some numbers around, if Frederick makes $30,000 a year delivering soda, then the prosecution should have had no trouble at all showing that he had a large unreported income in excess of that. I am no forensic accountant, but I know there is a big difference in the life a male twenty-something will be living on 30 grand a year and that he would be living on at 90+ grand a year (and most of that tax-free). If the prosecution couldn’t point to an an expensive car or two, an inexplicable set of bank transactions, or a set of expensive vices, then their implication is a joke. Essentially, they are saying, “We haven’t shown you that he grew the stuff, we haven’t shown you that he sold the stuff, and we haven’t shown you that he has the money from selling the stuff, but it might be about be about $64 thousand if you believed any of the stuff we haven’t proven.” I wonder what the prosecutor’s annual compensation is worth?
And, of course, even if Frederick were somehow pocketing some nice change from pot sales, that has nothing to do with why the police felt violent entry during a nighttime raid was justified instead of just picking him up as he got home from work. The not-so-subtle implication that he is a serious grower just undermines the justification for the door-busting raid, because you can’t flush a big time grow operation while cops are waiting for you to answer the door.
From my comment on your previous post:
(10 (plants) / 2 (sex)) * 8 oz / 8 weeks (grow cycle) = 1 oz per week
RF was growing 10 plants at a time, half of which would be female. In indoor setting the most he could hope for would be 1/2 lb per plant. It takes at least 8 weeks from seed to harvest. This is why growing your own simply isn’t feasible for most people. One can barely sustain personal use without a major grow setup.
“you can’t flush a big time grow operation while cops are waiting for you to answer the door.”
Especially when the grow operation is supposed to be in the garage and you are in the house.
Wow! 64K a year and all you need is a 10 x 10 unheated shed and a few bucks worth of gear? And the whole operation is totally undetectable by detectives running surveillance for months?
Sign me up!
Oh wait… those numbers could be total bullshit.
Right, as a juror I’d see that as the umpteenth lie the prosecution was telling. That alone would piss me off enough to take a nullify approach to the whole process. No matter what I’d simply vote not guilty.
Radley, hazard a guess as to how this is going to turn out? I can’t bring myself to believe an acquittal is probable, simply because dead cop + drugs, but from everything you report, it sounds like he’s actually got a shot at a hung jury, or, if convicted, some very good prospects on appeal.
“Which of course would explain why Ryan Frederick got up at 4am each morning to deliver soft drinks.” -
“Hello, young underclass youth…I’m from the government…We’d like to know why you prefer a life of crime making $20,000 a week selling scalp tonic…when you could be working honestly at McDonald’s.”
“Allergic to French fries.”
“Oh! We have a program for that!”
- Bloom County, _The Night of the Mary Kay Commandos_
This lawyer and expert obviously have no background in farming or anything. They seem to expect 100% crop success when it’s lucky to get 50-75% yield from your seeds, if you have good seeds and you know what you are doing
If you are getting 50% males after the first generation, you’re doing it wrong. It’s not difficult to clone.
$400/oz isn’t far out at all, as much as I hate to admit it. That’s $50/eighth, and that’s pretty common for kind bud.
Ebert’s train of thought isn’t illogical prima facie.
I remember an episode of The Sopranos where Tony’s cousin Tony (played by Steve Buscemi) was trying to live a clean life after getting out of a 20-year stint in the joint, so he became a masseur.
Another character didn’t believe that Cousin Tony was totally clean and told him that it was a good idea to have a real job as a front, so as to cover for his additional income from the criminal operation.
I am not suggesting that Frederick was using his delivery job as cover for his income from a drug-dealing operation, just that from a logical perspective, Ebert’s argument is valid, if not sound.
Unsupported by evidence, scummy, but valid.
Radley,
It is a great service to expose to your readers what is going on in the RF trial. I hope everyone knows this all “business as usual”. All the parts that make you scream (inside or out), shake your fist three times in anger, and lose respect for the state law system…are all happening across the country every hour of every day. And, they happen not just in drug cases, but every single category.
A total system failure. One of many when it comes to the US Government (including the states and all the armed thugs represen’in). Now, have the people advanced past the state enough to actually recognize a better system when it comes (…for example: much of the libertarian platform…and a lot of anarchy as well).
Can’t come to an end soon enough for me (IMHO).
What Boyd said.
Male plants are easily weeded out, but there is no way to get an indoor plant to yield 8 ounces. The most I have ever heard of is 3 ounces, and that is perfect strain, perfect conditions.
The fact that it is difficult for someone to grow enough for personal use is all the more reason why it should be legal to grow your own or at least have these raids stopped. Without a significant grow op, it is not possible to grow enough to sell.
Up to date news…
The jury requested a copy of RF’s interview tape, a diagram of the house, and the door. Does this look good or bad for RF?
If they keep that man behind bars, gods help this land.
I’m really surprised there wasn’t a mistrial declared, since the jury was tainted by the testimony of a jailhouse snitch who has proven to be unreliable.
“$400/oz isn’t far out at all, as much as I hate to admit it. That’s $50/eighth, and that’s pretty common for kind bud.”
And prosecuters rarely stop there. They would assume he’s sellilng dimes, to inflate the “street” value.
Omar
Thanks for the update. I would hope that is good news. It certainly demonstrates that the jury is actually deliberating and thinking about this and not ready to just participate whole-heartedly in this witchhunt.
Ben:
“If you are getting 50% males after the first generation, you’re doing it wrong. It’s not difficult to clone.
$400/oz isn’t far out at all, as much as I hate to admit it. That’s $50/eighth, and that’s pretty common for kind bud.”
I had researched that a bit, and you CAN sell sensimilla (kine bud in the vernacular, ‘sensimilla’ means “Without seeds”) for 400 bucks an ounce. However, in order to produce more than a few ounces per plant you need very high quality plants 6 to 7 feet high. Most of the plant is shit weed you’d be stupid to even try to sell, only the top buds prior to seed formation is sellable for the big money.
Cloning plants involves reverting a plant that has revealed itself as female to the vegetative state by inducing a clipping to sprout roots. You can do this many times… guaranteeing that the plants are all female.
Typically, home growers don’t get plants that big, and produce 1 to 2 ounces of weed per plant. And that’s inside a heated building.
If you were really serious… and wanted to produce profits as described by Meinhart… you would have a breeding line where only the best female plants were selected, then cloned in a production environment where the plants were kept in controlled conditions and grown to a height of 6 to 7 feet.
Ryan Frederick had no such facility. At BEST he could have grown for personal consumption. And considering, that even if you believe Steven Wright’s testimony… he stole ‘Half the plants’. Implying he took the female ones and that they were small. This does not paint Frederick as a genius botanist producing ungodly yields.
Fuck! If you could grow 64K worth of quality sensimilla a year in a 10 by 10 foot space without it being detectable… every other garage in america would be stuffed with pot.
My old acquaintances are really fortunate that they were not paying half of what the above prices suggest! And, they said it was “good stuff”! That is probably big city pricing!
“If you could grow 64K worth of quality sensimilla a year in a 10 by 10 foot space without it being detectable… every other garage in america would be stuffed with pot.” – exactly right, and no one would be buying from the black market.
To answer some challenges to my estimation, apparently I was far too generous to the prosecutor. The 8 weeks, is for a flowering period, not the whole grow cycle which is a minimum of 16 weeks. I was also unaware that this was not a climate controlled garage, which means he couldn’t have been growing year-round. I don’t think RF could have sustained personal use with this grow and probably had to buy it elsewhere in the summer months when it’s too hot (in a shed) to grow, and in the winter when it’s too cold.
$400 oz would be accurate for “big city” pricing assuming quality product.
For the record – I just wrote down what Mr. Ebert said – if reefer was going for $400.00 a lid (I think my age is showing), I’D be growing it…
Only for personal use, of course…
I’m a professional pot grower, so I’m really getting a kick out of these replies…
(No, not really…)
“Lid”…hmmm. lI remember that too.
Geesh, my age is showing as well. I’d better do inventory to see if anything else is showing.
Damn this is torture! Now I am rambling…
$400/ounce?
I seem to recall having been told that pot was available in about 1970 for $10 for a full ounce bag.
The War On Drugs has succeeded in inflating the price, making it more attractive to organized criminal enterprises, but has not succeeded in limiting availability.
Full employment for crooks and cops.
Who’d have thought it?
“Lid”…hmmm. lI remember that too.
Geesh, my age is showing as well. I’d better do inventory to see if anything else is showing. I digress….
Damn this is torture! Now I am rambling…
Mr. Jenkins (#8)
The “expert” (an “ex” is a has-been, and a “spurt” is a drip under pressure…) is Detective Meinhart – he has 250 hours of specialized training, including the areas of cultivation, distribution and use of marijuana. His figures regarding plant yield (one pound per plant) come from the DEA (he says).
any more updates Omar?
Cynical, the thing is Ryan Frederick is no Tony Soprano, or his cousin. Did you see the tapes?
I don’t want to knock anyone down, but the above comments about yields, cycles, and such have as many holes in them as the prosecutor’s case against RF.
To just clear up a few points, from my experience with Nevada’s medpot program.
1. Yield – I have personally seen indoor hydro bucket plants less than four feet tall that yielded 13+ ounces. All this talk above about plant yields ignores the most important variable: lumens. Indoor plant yields are based on the amount of light they receive, and for how long. Typically, one can expect to harvest a pound per 1,000 watts of light. Smaller bulbs will generate less lumens and therefore smaller yields. Light intensity rather than plant count is the yardstick by which to gauge yield on indoor grows. It should be noted that less skillful growers will have smaller yields due to other problems that occur, but this does not invalidate the principle. As a side note, hydro setups have been show to produce as much as a 60% increase in yield as compared to soil.
2. Male v female: Some people start from seed, which if normal will yield about 55% female. Of course, feminized seeds are available which come from hermaphroditic male flowers on female plants and are all genetically female.
If one were to have an ongoing grow situation, they would most likely take cuttings before flowering as causing flowering plants to revert as mentioned above, produces stressed clones which are more likely to go hermie.
I’d like to note that this does not appear to be the case with RF, as no mention has been made of cloning trays or cuttings, which the police sometimes try to include in the plant count.
3. Cycles – 5-14 days for a seed to germinate or cuttings to root.
2-4 weeks of vegetative growth depending on method used.
Flowering varies from 39-118 days depending on the variety.
Typically 3 months from root to harvest is average for indicas.
4. Price – varies tremendously depending on locale and strain. Cheap mexi dirtweed can be had for $600-700/lb in L.A., while high end hydro can bought in NYC for $600-700/ounce. Many of the California dispensaries charge $15-$20/ gram for their medical strains. Too often people have a ‘pot is pot is pot’ attitude, not taking into account the difference between ground chuck and filet mignon, or perhaps more appropriately on this board, the difference between a bacon wrapped hot dog and a bacon wrapped porterhouse.
5. Quality top v bottom – When Sean Connery in The Medicine Man asks the witch doctor about the flower he believes holds the cure to cancer, the witch doctor dismisses him by saying ‘plant just house for bugs’. In cannabis the only part of the plant that is important are the trichomes, the resin glands. These are of consistent chemical make-up throughout the plant. Bottom buds, while less dense and smaller are just as potent as the tops. Indigent patients that I know are very happy to receive free donations of medical cannabis, no matter where on the plant they came from. Smaller, airier buds can also be used with great success in making butter, oils or other edibles.
There are lots more variables, but the prime key to determine how much he could grow is the amount of light he used.
I wonder about the quote in prices. Hmmm. I think they just make up the numbers.
Today, a Texas trooper found a bus load of pot abandoned on the highway. The numbers the Texas Dept of Public Safety gives is:
9,210 pounds of Mary J
$3.9 million in street value
Thats only $423 per pound
$26.46 an ounce
Must’ve been low quality??? No. Just realistic.
Your indoor yield depends a lot on your grow style. Some like to do a “sea of green” (SOG) method where they grow right next to each other closely packed. You can expect an ounce a plant, possibly less, if you do it that way. Some others just use buckets of a soil mix, 5 gallon size or so, you can expect reasonably to get 4-6 ounces if you are a beginner to maybe upwards of 9 ounces a plant if you have a real good idea of what youre doing. Hydroponic methods give you the fastest grow and highest yields, 12 ounces or so. Lighting conditions and other variables also come in to account. The strain makes quite a bit of difference as well. Indicas are naturally shorter and yield tight compact buds but less of a yield. They also finish faster. Sativas are taller, the yield is higher, but they take longer to grow. Indicas tend to have a huge body buzz in addition to a cerebral buzz whereas sativas tend to be mostly a cerebral buzz. If i remember right, ryan had a “grow tent”. Knowing the size of the tent would give me the best idea of what he could produce. A crop from seed will take about 4 months, tho you can force them to flower early. A crop grown from clones could finish in about 3 months. There are also some strains, usually crossbreeds, containing some traits from ruderalis (hemp) stock that “autoflower” and you can get a yield in about 2 months. It does seem to me, that with an average grow sized grow tent and about a dozen plants, ryan could grow enough for personal stash, but not enough to have extra to sell. I suspect he smokes weed at the end of the day just as someone else might like to have a scotch at the end of the day.
Price wise good indoor grass will fetch $50-60 an 1/8 of an ounce in my neck of the woods. Usually hydroponic runs the $60. There is still good imported weed around that runs $35-40 dollars a 1/4 ounce and sometimes even $50. Buying it in quantity gets you good discounts tho. The same grass that sells for $50 an 1/8 for example, which comes out to $6400, could be bought as a pound for $3000-3500. Decent commercial weed at $40 a 1/4 can be bought for $900-1200 a pound. There is also this real nasty crap from texas that is really dirt cheap but no self respecting pot smoker would touch it so we dont need to discuss that.
“Must’ve been low quality??? ”
Yeah. If its coming out of texas, its usually shit.
I just want to say that in the midst of yet more depression on this board (damn you Radley), the above quote definitely made me smile.
If you would like to voice some displeasure:
Party: Democratic Party of Virginia
Email: pebert@pwcgov.org
Website: N/A
Phone: N/A
Address: 9311 Lee Ave Ste 200
Manassas, VA 20110
#38-
Thank you for that post. I started in on something similar and gave up after a couple paragraphs. There are far too many variables at play. I daresay experience is just as important as lumens, probably moreso. Give the same setup to two people, one amateur and one expert, and you’ll get vastly different results.
And yes, it is very possible he could grow enough to sell. He wouldn’t be doing anything other than offsetting some costs and would still be in the red after expenses, but he’d have home grown weed and a little bit of extra cash.
Pegr #31
Too late, you said it bro. Better get a bullet proof vest for your dog.
This may have been pointed out before, but even if we accept the $400 per ounce figure (which isn’t all that far off if you figure $50 for an eighth, which is what I pay for good shit), there is a fallacy here: growers are almost never street vendors.
If they are growing to sell, they are going to do so in bulk, which is done at a much lower rate per ounce than street value. You don’t often see a guy who is growing plants on one end, and selling dime bags on the other end.
Of course this isn’t unique to this case: whenever you hear about multi-kilogram seizures of anything, they value it in terms of the per-gram street price. This is never what the bulk package is worth to the seller.
One could easily make $400/oz if they were selling small bags themselves. I wasn’t looking at it like that because, if he was moving pounds on even a semi-regular basis, I find it rather hard to believe HE was selling quantities smaller than whole ounces very often. If he were, his place would have looked like a 7-11 and he would have been popped a long time ago, in all likelihood.
That said, if $400 per WHOLE ounce is “not too far out” for “big city pricing”, then I suppose I’ll have to tack that on to my already extensive list of reasons the Pacific NW is absolutely exceptional.
Oh, and, thank you, Mr. Willburn. I was being glib in my initial response; I realize you weren’t the one making these outlandish claims. Mah bad.
Like I wrote, Pam, Ebert’s argument is valid but not sound, and I am not endorsing it, just showing that there’s a foundation for that line of reasoning in general.
Personally, I don’t think Frederick could have possibly produced a crop yielding 10 pounds of 400 dollar an ounce sensimilla with his decidedly ghetto setup… but more importantly, the prosecution didn’t show how he was manufacturing marijuana AT ALL. Remember, what he may have done (And not been busted for) in the past has no bearing on the current charges, that he is manufacturing marijuana NOW.
From:
http://tidewaterliberty.wordpress.com/2009/01/26/ryan-frederick-trial-day-five/
“Det. Meinhart (sp?) introduced a number of items recovered in the search of the house and garage, including small amounts of marijuana, a smoking device, literature on marijuana and, in the attic, un-assembled parts of grow lights. From the attic of the garage, tubs for two hydroponic setups and other supporting accessories.
On cross examination, Det. Meinhart (sp?) explained hydroponics production of marijuanna and that one mature plant produced 8 to 12 ounces of smoking material.”
Besides Ebert’s apparent memory lapse on how much bud Meinhart said you can get from a plant, I don’t think you’re gunna get that much from some stuff stored in the attic. You actually have to be using it to… you know… grow pot.
Doh, I forgot that they had worked a confession out of him on the growing of the marijuana.
Like the woman’s T-shirt says … “Nobody talks, everybody walks”.
This case just pisses me off so much.
Agitator Readers:
Vote early, vote often on the online poll of desired outcome of the Ryan Frederick case. Unfortunately, most people, including jurors, are easily influenced by what they feel is the prevailing view of everyone else. There is a good chance that they will see, or at least hear about this poll, even though they aren’t supposed to discuss the case outside of their deliberations. Let’s show them that the prevailing view is that Frederick is indeed innocent.
http://hamptonroads.com/polls/what-should-verdict-be-ryan-frederick039s-murder-trial
“Like the woman’s T-shirt says … “Nobody talks, everybody walks.”
Google search terms: “nobody talks everybody walks prisoner’s dilemma”
“There’s a saying among criminal defense lawyers: If nobody talks, everybody walks. That’s not always entirely true, but it is true that the more defendants stand fast and make the government prove their case, the better it is for the other defendants doing so. The prisoner’s dilemma applies, though.”
http://bennettandbennett.com/blog/2008/12/everybody-gets-convicted-anyway.html
@#36 Marty
Omar isn’t in the court to give updates…Omar is in London teaching a software class, no doubt being watched by the security cameras as he types.
I’m getting my info from here…
http://hamptonroads.com/tags/shiversshooting
…and was begging someone else with info for an update. :P
Oh, and there it is…
http://hamptonroads.com/2009/02/frederick-jury-goes-home-after-day-deliberations
Nothing.
I’m getting out my sharpest pen and crispest stationary – the “Free Ryan Frederick” campaign will probably have to start tomorrow.
Gods, I’m depressed.
http://www.wavy.com/dpp/news/Local_Virginia_Beach_Marijuana_Bust_Revelstroke_Court_Wavy_20080203
How to conduct a VALID police operation and bust a REAL grow operation..
{clip]
According to search warrants, detectives got a tip about the operation last July. After watching the home for several months and compiling evidence, officers decided to go in.
[clip]
‘How to conduct a VALID police operation and bust a REAL grow operation..
{clip]
According to search warrants, detectives got a tip about the operation last July. After watching the home for several months and compiling evidence, officers decided to go in.
[clip]”
How is that more valid? That’s EXACTLY what happened in the Frederick case. They got a tip and watched his home for several months, too.
They probably just got lucky and hit oil on this well! I’m going to assume that THESE detectives are just as shit-tastically incompetent at ‘investigating’ as the Frederick crew was.
Look at the pattern… “Get Tip” … “pretend to investigate” … execute a bust.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut eventually… This could have just as easily resulted in a wrong door raid that killed innocent people.
Show me the fucking transparency… the checks and balances against a possible botched raid.
Hey, Bob!,
I bet, they still used the SWAT gear! But, on the other side, maybe they did see more, than the usual, traffic to the house involved in the successful (non-fatal) raid. That is instead of the lack of it, seen at Ryan’s house! I remember reading, in past articles that lead to the impression that drug dealers were next door, (or crack houses) was the fact that people were coming on and going all of the time, at all hours of the day! Even the neighbors could see that! I would think it would not take a “crack” police force to be able to observe what a neighborhood watch could, in an investigation of “several months”! Not that any drug raid for MJ is morally legitimate. The laws are applied, as in most cases in this country, as the LE people desire!
Micheal:
I’m just suspicious because the story seems to always be the same… ‘got tip’… ‘watched for several months’ … ‘raided house’.
And yet, you still get cases where a house 2 doors down and across the street gets raided, or there was clearly no actual investigation done… or what have you.
Any idiot with an amp meter should be able to find evidence of a grow op this large within a week… there had to be 30K watts of lighting in there, minimum. Last I checked, power doesn’t enter your house by magic, it goes through wires that extend past your property lines.
Sure, they COULD have done actual investigation, then had Officer Friendly calmly knock on the door with a warrant in his hand… but I doubt it.
@ Bob (#58): The ammeter idea might not fly under Kyllo.
An investigation where the police conduct surveillance of the suspected grow operation and conduct one or more controlled buys (the FBI likes to do a lot of controlled buys) and then go get a warrant really is pretty much exactly how you would want the investigation to go.
I don’t think anyone can seriously argue that if the police observe higher than normal traffic to a home and purchase drugs from its occupants that the police don’t have probable cause to get a warrant (I think undercover agents should do the buys, not CI’s, who are obviously compromised).
Then, the police take that warrant and (ideally) serve the warrant as the occupants of the house are leaving or returning, so there is no need for open combat operations on main street and there is no chance that the occupants can destroy evidence.
No violence necessary, the police conduct a valid search, and if they find sufficient evidence to arrest the occupants, they can do so.
Of course, all of that assumes that growing and selling drugs should be illegal, a proposition with which I disagree. Nonetheless, it should be possible for the police to conduct reasonable and responsible investigations of all sorts without resorting to excessive violence.
N.B.: I support repeal of all drug purchase and use restrictions, except in a few situations (like antibiotics) where there are bona fide public health issues.
“How is that more valid? That’s EXACTLY what happened in the Frederick case. They got a tip and watched his home for several months, too.”
*******
Lets see, July tip, raid conducted in Feb. vs. Tip from crook, get warrant based upon info, raid in three days, investigation consisted of two daytime drivebys.
I see a massive difference!
Oh and of course the activity should not be against any laws anyway, adding to the frustration by all.