Comments on: Morning Links

By: Greg N.

Greg N. — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 20:13:23 +0000

Reynolds also claimed there was no “housing bubble.” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=4243

By: JD

JD — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 21:44:05 +0000

#14

Sorry about that – here are the numbers from H8 for 9/24.

C&I 1555.0 +1.6% from 9/17
Real Estate 3632.4 +0.2%
Consumer 852.2 +0.6%
Interbank 76.4 +5.7%

By: JD

JD — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 21:40:45 +0000

#14

Just checked the H8 site, the data for 9/24 is now out. Here are the numbers

C&I

By: claude

claude — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:24:14 +0000

Shoot, that article was viewable when i pasted the link. Heres the same story at another source.

http://www.twincities.com/localnews/ci_10645029?nclick_check=1

By: Dan Brown

Dan Brown — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:58:32 +0000

FWIW, STRATFOR reported that the "RNC Welcoming Committee" arrestees were charged with possessing Molotov cocktails. If the information in the (subscriber only, unfortunately) article was accurate, that group is to peaceful anti-war demonstrators as the Earth Liberation Front is to Sierra Club members.

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 23:13:24 +0000

Hmm, yeah 6/11/2008 is when real estate loans started to decline. So for the past 3 to 4 months the growth that Reynolds is talking about was for the first part of the year. Interesting thing he is leaving out. Lets put this in perspective. From October of 2007 to June 11 of 2008 the real estate loans grew by about 5%, from June 11 onwards real estate loans have declined about 1% from their June value. Another way of looking at it, from October to June the amount of real estate loans financial institutions had on their books increased by around $4.8 billion/week on averge. From June onwards that number drops to -$2 billion/week on average.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 23:03:53 +0000

I’d also like to point out that credit is on a downwards trend from June (at least) using the weekly data and the total real estate number that Reynolds is using. It may not be an instant drying up of credity, but it is definitely moving in a downwards direction. Kind of an important thing to…neglect to mention.

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:55:52 +0000

Not only what Honeyko said about the fallacy of reasoning, but there are other measures of liquidity such as the LIBOR rate and the TED that indicate liquidity is a problem…or the lack thereof to be more precise. More recent data might show a rather different picture.

By: Honeyko

Honeyko — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:04:44 +0000

> What Reynolds said is that some in the media have been hyping a
> crippling dearth of lending and there hasn’t been one. I don’t see
> any evidence that he’s wrong about that.

Fallacy of the Excluded Middle: “Crippling dearth” and “hunky-dory” aren’t the only options.

Companies all over the place are having difficulty meeting payrolls because they cannot borrow short-term credit, and banks world-wide are beginning to shun one-another. — This, not the CDS monster, is what caused world markets to crash last night. (The CDS monster is mainly a problem for financials.)

– Do NOT attempt to look at this situation through a lens of whatever the administration or Paulson is saying; they don’t make it easy for you, you know, by lying 100% of the time.

By: Marty

Marty — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:34:19 +0000

good link on #13, Claude. I suspect over the next few years there will lots more ‘terrorists’ rounded up.

I’m sure you’re now a suspect for questioning these actions!

By: chsw

chsw — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:41:30 +0000

So the world now has a new euphemism – “threading the corn.”

chsw

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 18:08:07 +0000

Not sure I buy that Reynolds explanation. I saw something similar from Robert Higgs, but note the date, Sept 17th for the last data available. That is almost three weeks ago, the crisis didn’t really come to a head until about 2 weeks. I’d really like to see the data for the last 2 weeks before I sign on to that point of view.

By: claude

claude — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:10:42 +0000

This morning i was reading where some of the protesters at the RNC (they were arrested b4 the convention) r actually being charged with advancing terrorism. This is frightening.

http://www.startribune.com/local/30491189.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aU7EaDiaMDCiUT

By: Jefferson

Jefferson — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:05:46 +0000

My congressgrifter, Ron Klein, supported it from the beginning. But then again, he’s always been generous with other people’s money. And he has received $789,238 in campaign money from financial services companies, so there’s that.

By: Brandon Bowers

Brandon Bowers — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:59:50 +0000

My Congressman is Ron Paul, who seems to have voted against the bailout. I’m torn. I have a representative who is honest and has proven to be true to this country’s ideals (Liberty, not universal Christianity, for those who are confused), but it would be so satisfying to help deliver an electoral smackdown on any of the whores who voted for the bailout. Oh well, there are still two whores in the Senate from Texas, so I’ll do what I can about that.

By: Collin

Collin — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:17:18 +0000

My congresscritter, John Tierney, voted no initially, for which I even wrote him a nice ‘thany you’ letter. I wonder what he got to make him switch?

By: freedomfan

freedomfan — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:15:56 +0000

Honeyko,

What Reynolds said is that some in the media have been hyping a crippling dearth of lending and there hasn’t been one. I don’t see any evidence that he’s wrong about that.

Either way, I don’t see where what Congress has done is going to address the issues with poorly backed derivatives, which I consider to be a legitimate issue.

By: Edintally

Edintally — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 16:14:05 +0000

When I emailed and called my reps, I felt like I had done at least a little something when the House didn’t pass the first 700 billion.

Of course, when they passed the 850 billion dollar bill, I felt like a schmuck for not taking the first deal. LOL

By: Honeyko

Honeyko — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:20:49 +0000

> Alan Reynolds says the credit crunch scare is exaggerated….

Then he’s a fucking moron.

There are $54 *trillion* in poisonous credit-defaults-swaps and other mortgage derivatives that must be written off world-wide.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 15:16:46 +0000

My congressperson, Lincoln Diaz-Balart voted against the bailout, which leaves me torn. He’s aggravated me as he’s one of the reasons the US ban on everything Cuban continues to this day. But he’s okay on economic policy outside of that. And the guy he’s running against is a criminal.