TheAgitator.com
Is McCain’s Bounce Gone?
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008Looks like it. Of the six national polls taken over the last week tracked at Real Clear Politics, four show a 2-5 point Obama lead, one shows a tie, and one shows a one-point lead for McCain.
Perhaps the McCain camp’s sour tactics of late are backfiring. Or maybe the initial crush on Sarah Palin is wearing off as people learn more about her. Whatever the cause, there does seem to be some clear movement toward Obama across several polls.
It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out in upcoming state polls. My hunch? Palin will continue to help McCain in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, where people, particularly women, identify with her. Obama’s small national lead is more the result of him putting more distance between himself and McCain in the Northeast and California, where Palin’s folksy anti-elitism is more likely to irritate than resonate.
In other words, Obama may be doing better nationally, but it may not actually help him on the electoral map.
I’m still amused by the great attention the press and the public give national polls (and winning the so-called “popular vote”) in US presidential elections. These numbers are beyond irrelevant.
Wait, people identify with Palin in Michigan? Tell that to my dyed in the wool GOP, mother-in-law, who was planning on voting for McCain no matter what, but may not now, as long as Palin is on the ticket. Her PTA, country club friends are all saying the same thing.
Southeast MI, where most of the votes are in the state, contains the exact types of Republicans who *don’t* identify with Palin. Outer counties, maybe, but then again, all of them combined don’t equal the voting power of southeast MI.
So we’re returning to the status quo ante (ante the conventions).
People are fickle. The polls are going to keep going back and forth for another 6 weeks or so. Doesn’t matter much because I will speculate that chances of the same person getting re-elected in 2012 is pretty slim.
I’m going to keep posting this until election day;
Obama is slipping! The American people have proven once again that pretension and elit-wait a second….
McCain is slipping! The American people have proven once again that cronyism and elit-no, wait again.
Obama is slipping! The American people….
Wait, people identify with Palin in Michigan? Tell that to my dyed in the wool GOP, mother-in-law, who was planning on voting for McCain no matter what, but may not now, as long as Palin is on the ticket. Her PTA, country club friends are all saying the same thing.
Southeast MI, where most of the votes are in the state, contains the exact types of Republicans who *don’t* identify with Palin. Outer counties, maybe, but then again, all of them combined don’t equal the voting power of southeast MI.
I was at a McCain rally on Tuesday and was struck by the number of mid-aged women there. I walked away from the rally thinking I (and Obama supporters) seriously mis-underestimated how much of the women vote McCain has captured.
I personally think the cynical Palin pick is (rightfully) blowing up in McCain’s face. Her favorability rating has dropped like 16 points in 16 days, she is repeatedly caught in obvious lies (that she keeps repeating), she doesn’t seem that bright and my god is that voice annoying.
Now you have McCain sending lawyers to Alaska to stop the trooper probe, and Palin saying she won’t cooperate- even though she said she would cooperate fully when the probe was launched. The McCain/Republican water-carriers are trying to trick the national voters into thinking that this is a partisan investigation instigated by Obama, when it was started before anyone knew who the fuck she was. Sorry McCain, it’s not the Democrats fault you picked a running mate you had met twice before, hadn’t fully vetted, and knew was under investigation when you picked her. She was a ridiculous pick that reflects very badly on McCain’s judgment.
The Palin pick was a real Hail Mary pass from the McCain camp. With his campaign nearly lifeless and devoid of enthusiasm he needed to do something. So he picked Palin. She injected new life into the campaign, rallied the base and helped him win a bunch of news cycles.
Unfortunately, she’s a complete and total disaster. Palin is ignorant, corrupt and incompetent, the Republican trifecta.
I suppose Johnny Mac was gambling that he could take advantage of her charisma, novelty anf base appeal while hiding her away from the cold light of the press until Nov. 4th. Maybe the Obama campaign and the lefties would over reach in their criticism of her and McCain could surf the backlash into the White House. It was a risky gamble, but it was his only shot, so he figured he had to take it.
It’s a little early to say the gamble failed, but that’s what it looks like to me. I doubt that, at the end of the day, Palin helps McCain anywhere except Alaska.
Don’t kid yourselves folks, Palin may have been a hail Mary but it is going to work.
Gun-owners, as an example of one group, now have a REASON to vote McCain and they are the ones that cost Gore his home state of Tennessee in 2004. We’ll be out in droves.
It’ll be close, but I’m confident that confidence man named Obama won’t be in the Whitehouse next year.
My parents have voted republican every election since the 60s. They both said the will not vote this year because of Palin. To quote my mom, “No way will I put some ditsy cheerleader/prom queen in the white house.”
“Unfortunately, she’s a complete and total disaster. Palin is ignorant, corrupt and incompetent, the Republican trifecta. ”
“To quote my mom, “No way will I put some ditsy cheerleader/prom queen in the white house.””
To each their shallow own, I suppose. I will base my vote on the person who most represents my values, and as a bonus I will not assume the person I disagree with politically is ignorant, corrupt and incompetent, or a ditsy cheerleader pom queen. Just my little way of trying to skew the sexism average.
What I wouldn’t give to obtain a device that creates a world where the same people are running but reverses the (d) and (r) next to their name just to see if Ktc2 parents and Chuchundra remained intellectually consistent. My guess is no.