Obama Gets Separation: Convention Bounce or Palin Thud?

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008

The snapshot below is from RealClearPolitics’ summary of the latest tracking polls.  Obama seems to have opened up his biggest lead since the primaries ended.

Whether that was positive reaction to his speech and the DNC coverage or negative reaction to McCain’s VP selection I guess remains to be seen.

 

 

“>RealClearPolitics’ summary of the latest tracking polls.  Obama seems to have opened up his biggest lead since the primaries ended.

Whether that was positive reaction to his speech and the DNC coverage or negative reaction to McCain’s VP selection I guess remains to be seen.

 

 

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8 Responses to “Obama Gets Separation: Convention Bounce or Palin Thud?”

  1. #1 |  John Jenkins | 

    You left out the most likely answer: statistical noise. We’d need to see several weeks before knowing whether there is anything meaningful here.

  2. #2 |  Lee Jones | 

    Gallup is reporting “Bounce”, but smaller than expected based upon historical polling data. Whatever any of this means; most likely a tight election. I don’t really care who wins, either way it is win a little, lose a lot. Same as it ever was. I’m voting for Bob Barr as the none of the above candidate.

  3. #3 |  ClubMedSux | 

    This morning on my local news they had some pundit talking about how his poll of choice hasn’t shown any bounce whatsoever. If the various polls aren’t in agreement, why should I believe any of them?

  4. #4 |  chance | 

    Since this is the only libertarian board I read regularly, let me ask a question: Palin’s membership in the Alaskan Independence Party – plus or minus? On the one hand they sound fairly libertarian, but on the other hand I don’t see a lot of people here promoting secession as the cure to our ills.

  5. #5 |  Alex | 

    For those like me interested in horse-race politics, check out http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ . The guy who runs it is a sabermetrics (baseball stats) guru who works for Baseball Prospectus. He uses statistical methods similar to baseball to weight the different polls taking into account nearly every imaginable variable.

    Chance, from what I gather, her husband was the only one who was a registered member. I think it’s pretty much a wash. It seems like a regional populist movement that was more about protest votes. That’s my two cents. Also, here’s an interesting link from the instapundit making the libertarian case for Palin: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/the_libertarian_case_for_palin.html

  6. #6 |  Phelps | 

    Neither, chance, since she was never part of the AIP.

  7. #7 |  KBCraig | 

    Palin sent her greetings to AIP, just like New Hampshire politicians send greetings to gatherings of the Free State Project: because they might be in the minority, but they strike a nerve with a lot of voters.

  8. #8 |  chance | 

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/another-aip-off.html

    From the above link, it seems like its still an open question whether she was or wasn’t. Still, if the AIP can’t prove it, I’m willing to take her word for it. But if they do come up with some proof, well – I wasn’t voting McCain anyway, but that will look pretty bad.

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