The problem with your hypothesis is that white people, as a voting block, vote substantively (on the issues). The studies I’m aware of show that when faced between the choice of a white candidate and a black candidate, there is no significant difference. That is to say there is not an overwhelming majority of white voters who vote for the white candidate. Its roughly split, 50/50.

Where you see descriptive voting (voting for someone who looks like you or who you can personally identify with) is within minority communities, roughly 80/20 will vote for a minority candidate. Of course, where minorities are majorities, they vote substantively as well.

Of course, that doesn’t mean he won’t lose. It just means your hypothesis for why, is flawed.

2. If were McCain, I would throw as much money as I could to Bob Barr. Right now, the story is that Barr will hurt McCain, but I am not really convinced. First, would be Republican voters are more likely to close ranks in the end than would be Obama voters, esp. given Obama’s flip-flops on a couple of issues that matter to his base (e.g., telecom immunity). Second, the ACLU and MPP lobbyist running for president is the Republican’s problem? Libertarians should have learned something recently – there are a number of potential allies on the left. Barr has surrounded himself with a bunch of conservative has-beens, but there is plenty of time for him to change his emphasis (unless, of course, he is interested in the same half a percent that Libertarian presidential candidates typically get). I tend to think that if Ron Paul had run as a Democrat he would have stayed meaningfully in the thick of the race for quite a while (possibly barring his abortion position). After all, it isn’t Bushbots who are furious with Pelosi over the war, etc.

If he’s elected, the VP will be a very, very important position…and chances are, McCain will select someone considered more conservative by the base to counteract the “renegade” image that media lickspittles have given him.

The more you see of him the less there is to like. And Obama will mop the floor with him in any public forum. Or even more likely, Obama can just stand there and let him mop the floor with himself.

Face facts. The Republican Party drove their ducks to this sad, sad pond.

Now let them swim in it for about 8 years.

#15 is right, with all the fawning he should be up big everywhere. The fact is he polled much, much better than what his actual vote totals were throughout the primaries, and I’m betting that doesn’t change.

I think that’s the problem, Maverick HAS started campaigning in earnest. He’d better hope the ensuing media coverage doesn’t backfire on him. It will be easier to tie McSurge to Bush if he uses the same campaign techniques. Though I don’t think calling voters and telling them BHO has a black baby will have the same effect as it did on McCain in 2000.

And McCain is the one in trouble?

If I thought that particular transformation were even remotely possible, I’d actually consider voting for the SOB.

Or even the 1988 Bush vs. Dukakis results.

Frankly, I’m hoping Barr, McKinney and Nader can win enough votes to through the “election” to the House of Representatives, which hasn’t happened since 1824. At least that might make the sham more interesting.

The fact that he has to spend it defending states that he should have in the bag, though, is not a good sign for him. I saw somebody comment that McCain spends like crazy on TV ads while Obama is doing his spending with ground organizations. It would be interesting to see how effective each will be.