TheAgitator.com
The Race Today
Thursday, July 31st, 2008Obama seems to have eked out a small lead in Florida, which is a huge problem for McCain. Real Clear Politics still gives McCain a slight advantage there, but that’s due to one poll putting him up by eight that looks like an outlier. Obama’s up two points in the three other most recent polls taken in Florida. McCain still holds slim leads in Missouri, North Dakota, and North Carolina, but those are places he shouldn’t need to fight for. And he’s still down in Indiana and Virginia. I don’t see how he wins without taking both of those states.
As before, McCain can still get to 270 by making up just a few points in several states. But Obama is starting with 230-240 electoral votes in the bag. McCain needs to pretty much pitch a shutout in the remaining battleground states to win.
McCain and his campaign have grown increasingly nasty and combative over the last couple of weeks. That makes me think their internals are showing the same thing the public polls are showing–that he’s in trouble.
One other thing: I realize that looking at polls this far our is meaningless when it comes to predicting what will likely happen on Election Day. I do it mostly because I find it fun. One thing I do think early polling does do, though, is show candidates where they’re generally weak, and generally strong–and consequently where they need to spend money. If McCain’s spending money in August to defend states he should have wrapped up by now, that could affect how much money he has left to fight should the race tighten up in October.
Here’s my map as of today:
I hope McCain not only loses, but he loses BIG, as in he only wins the states that have ALWAYS been hugely republican. If he gets 150 Electoral Votes or less, it will be the most humiliating loss I can think of.
http://tinyurl.com/2e83nl
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The Iowa Electronic Markets, or IEM, is a group of real-money prediction markets/futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes. The IEM allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on, among other things, political election results and economic indicators.
The political election results have been highly accurate, especially when compared with traditional polling. This may be because it uses a free market model to predict an outcome, instead of the aggregation of many individuals’ opinions. The speculator is more interested in a correct outcome than in his or her desired outcome.
Currently, Obama has one of his biggest leads, you can follow the link for data.
Personally I think the GOP deserves, and needs, to go the way of the Whigs.
Is anyone predicting Alaska will turn over given the recent scandal there?
All Obama has to do to win is not fuck anything up. American’s are celebrity-obsessed movie star worshipers. The huge disparity in looks and age alone will put Obama in the White House. McCain is also saddled with the disadvantage of being from the same party as Bush. And, last but not least, McCain seems to give off a subtle aura of being a sleazy beady-eyed conniving self-obsessed con artist who would snatch babies out of their mother’s arms and skewer them on bamboo spears if he thought it would help his ambitions. I think we’ll see more of that attitude as he becomes more desperate.
McCain = That doddering old uncle every family has who falls asleep in his mashed potatoes at Thanksgiving each year.
Part of the reason why McCain is spending so much money right now is the same reason why Obama is: he’s got to spend it before the conventions. If they don’t spend the money before they become the official nominee, they can’t spend it at all.
The fact that he has to spend it defending states that he should have in the bag, though, is not a good sign for him. I saw somebody comment that McCain spends like crazy on TV ads while Obama is doing his spending with ground organizations. It would be interesting to see how effective each will be.
Edintally: Alaska’s going to be the closest that it’s been in a long time, but the smart money is on it staying Republican. I think Obama has some plans to go visit there a few times, but on the list of states that will make the most difference, Alaska’s 3 EV’s are far less critical to be worrying about than Florida, NC, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado. It would be a coup for the Democrats, to be sure, but I don’t think they’re going to spend much time or money on it.
Nando: Look up the electoral college numbers from Reagan vs: Carter.
Wonderful to hear from fellow O’Bamabots. About the map: Montana and Nevada are very very questionable. Indiana is very questionable unless Bayh is on the ticket–or works the state as if he were. Missouri seems more likely to go Dem than Indiana IMHO. Fla (where I am a Dem ‘block captain’) has a ‘Defense of Marriage’ (for straight people) Amendment on the ballot which makes the Dem’s job harder. But if you’re watching the election returns the night of 4 Nov and Barack wins Fla and Va, turn off the TV and go to bed–McCain has become Goldwater.
Nando: Look up the electoral college numbers from Reagan vs: Carter.
Or even the 1988 Bush vs. Dukakis results.
Frankly, I’m hoping Barr, McKinney and Nader can win enough votes to through the “election” to the House of Representatives, which hasn’t happened since 1824. At least that might make the sham more interesting.
“…turn off the TV and go to bed–McCain has become Goldwater.”
If I thought that particular transformation were even remotely possible, I’d actually consider voting for the SOB.
Where did you make the map?
Why so cruel to the legacy of AuH2O?
So… Obama has the media in the tank, is getting tabloid fawning, is still riding the coverage from the primary, McCain is getting no coverage and hasn’t begun campaigning in earnest, and… Obama still can’t break 50%?
And McCain is the one in trouble?
It is not a good sign when the Wall Street Journal runs an editorial that asks, “Is McCain an Idiot?”. When Fox News asks the same question it will be over. Then again Fox still thinks Bush is great.
“McCain is getting no coverage and hasn’t begun campaigning in earnest”
I think that’s the problem, Maverick HAS started campaigning in earnest. He’d better hope the ensuing media coverage doesn’t backfire on him. It will be easier to tie McSurge to Bush if he uses the same campaign techniques. Though I don’t think calling voters and telling them BHO has a black baby will have the same effect as it did on McCain in 2000.
Just keep in mind that I’ve been saying for months Obama is gonna lose and it will come as a major surprise and shock for the media. There isn’t a state he’s going to win in the south and there are enough white blue collar dems in the north and midwest that will stay home rather than vote for “the black guy”. We’ll have to listen for months what a racist nation this is for not electing obama and republicans will get the blame.
#15 is right, with all the fawning he should be up big everywhere. The fact is he polled much, much better than what his actual vote totals were throughout the primaries, and I’m betting that doesn’t change.
There are two things that McCain does not need. More media coverage and town hall meetings.
The more you see of him the less there is to like. And Obama will mop the floor with him in any public forum. Or even more likely, Obama can just stand there and let him mop the floor with himself.
Face facts. The Republican Party drove their ducks to this sad, sad pond.
Now let them swim in it for about 8 years.
It doesn’t really help that McCain is 72 and looks every second of it. If he’s elected (and I hope he isn’t–America can’t handle another 4 years of the current batch of Republicans, they need a shaking up), does it look like he’ll last 4 years in office? I’ve got to rule out 8 entirely.
If he’s elected, the VP will be a very, very important position…and chances are, McCain will select someone considered more conservative by the base to counteract the “renegade” image that media lickspittles have given him.
1. Obama should crush McCain; he will probably only pull off a (roughly) 5 or 6 point victory.
2. If were McCain, I would throw as much money as I could to Bob Barr. Right now, the story is that Barr will hurt McCain, but I am not really convinced. First, would be Republican voters are more likely to close ranks in the end than would be Obama voters, esp. given Obama’s flip-flops on a couple of issues that matter to his base (e.g., telecom immunity). Second, the ACLU and MPP lobbyist running for president is the Republican’s problem? Libertarians should have learned something recently – there are a number of potential allies on the left. Barr has surrounded himself with a bunch of conservative has-beens, but there is plenty of time for him to change his emphasis (unless, of course, he is interested in the same half a percent that Libertarian presidential candidates typically get). I tend to think that if Ron Paul had run as a Democrat he would have stayed meaningfully in the thick of the race for quite a while (possibly barring his abortion position). After all, it isn’t Bushbots who are furious with Pelosi over the war, etc.
Token,
The problem with your hypothesis is that white people, as a voting block, vote substantively (on the issues). The studies I’m aware of show that when faced between the choice of a white candidate and a black candidate, there is no significant difference. That is to say there is not an overwhelming majority of white voters who vote for the white candidate. Its roughly split, 50/50.
Where you see descriptive voting (voting for someone who looks like you or who you can personally identify with) is within minority communities, roughly 80/20 will vote for a minority candidate. Of course, where minorities are majorities, they vote substantively as well.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he won’t lose. It just means your hypothesis for why, is flawed.