TheAgitator.com
The Race Today
Tuesday, July 15th, 2008A strange dichotomy seems to be developing. The national polls are tightening. The five-to-six point lead Obama has enjoyed for about six weeks seems to have slipped to something between a dead heat and a two-to-three point lead.
But if you look at the state-by-state polls, Obama’s pulling way ahead. In fact, right now it’s looking like an electoral blowout. Even the best scenario has McCain losing by about 50 electoral votes. States like Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Colorado were supposed to be toss-ups. They now consistently show a small but steady Obama lead. The only swing states McCain’s holding are Florida and West Virginia. Obama’s picking up a minimum of five states that Bush won in 2004, while McCain’s playing defense. Right now, he isn’t in position to pick up any of the states that Kerry won.
But Obama’s also competing in places no one expected, particularly in the Mountain West. He’s leading in Montana. At least two polls have him tied in North and South Dakota. He’s been up in Indiana and Virginia for weeks. And Zogby is off the charts for Obama right now. He has Obama up in both Carolinas and Arkansas, too. In fact, Zogby has Obama within three in Arizona. Even places like Texas and Mississippi don’t appear entirely safe for McCain.
Perhaps this will all tighten up as we near the election. But I think it’s also partly Bob Barr. Barr isn’t yet mentioned in many of the national polls. But in state polls, he’s consistently pulling in five percent or more, and it seems to be coming mostly from McCain. My colleague Dave Weigel–who follows this stuff more closely than I do– thinks it’s too early to give Barr that much credit. He may be right. But for the moment, Barr’s hurting McCain. If McCain’s spending money in Texas or North Carolina after Labor Day, this is going to be a bloodbath. Of course, that kind of showing from Barr would also force the GOP to pay more heed to its neglected limited government wing, and less to its David Brooks faction. So that would in general be a pretty good thing.
If there’s a bright side for McCain, it’s that Obama doesn’t have an insurmountable lead in any of these places. There are still enough states where Obama’s lead is within the margin of error for McCain to get to 270. A major misstep from Obama and McCain’s right back in it. But the momentum clearly seems to be with Obama right now, the national polls notwithstanding.
The only change I’m making to my map right now is Montana. The last poll there shows Obama up five in a state that’s been trending toward the Democrats in prior elections. The fact that neighboring South Dakota shows a dead heat (Bush won it by 27 points in 2004) also makes me think the Montana poll is correct. So Montana goes blue.
A couple more polls, and Missouri and North Carolina may flip, too. For now, I’m going to disregard Zogby’s crazy numbers in the deep south. If Barr keeps tracking at five to nine percent there, that could change. Same for Nevada.
Did you just spend 500 words to tell us things can change between now and November? Put away the crystal ball and accept the fact that we don’t know shit about how the election will come out because people LIE to pollsters all the time.
[...] as the national polls remain tight, Radley Balko senses a potential Electoral College blowout, and credits it to Bob Barr: Barr isn’t yet mentioned in many of the national polls. But in state polls, he’s consistently [...]
“There are still enough states where Obama’s lead is within the margin of error for McCain to get to 270. ”
This sentence is the operative point………add this snapshot to the series we’ll be looking for come 5 November.
Are you so sure? Nader ran to the left of Gore and put Bush in office but I don’t think he made the Democratic party one iota more liberal. They’ve controlled both houses of congress for quite some time now yet we’re still embroiled in Iraq, we don’t have universal healthcare, Bush hasn’t been impeached, the telecom immunity/FISA bill passed, etc., etc. For all his noise I don’t think Nader made the Democratic party any more liberal. (Thank God, in most cases.)
Spoilers seem to make the major parties become ever more entrenched in same-old, same-old. Rather than move in the direction of the spoiler’s beliefs they use the whole experience as a way to energize their base, pointing to the negative outcome (Gore losing in 2000, McCain losing in 2008) and saying, “Look at what those terrible Greens/Libertarians did! Vote for us next time, we’re the least bad politicians with an actual chance of winning.”
I suspect that many of the people who are saying today they will vote for the third-party candidate will in the end in fact vote for a major-part candidate. Telling a pollster “Bob Barr” is a cheap way of registering a protest with the choices offered. Actually pulling the Bob Barr lever come November is quite different.
#4 – There was a discussion of that at Hit & Run a couple days ago. Saying “Bob Barr” doesn’t even have to be a protest, it could just be a way to say you’re undecided when you’re not offered that choice.
You should continue to disregard zogbys numbers throughout this election season. I’m not sure how he’s doing his sampling but I don’t think he’s been even close for a decade now.
All I can say is that, while my political beliefs are a mixture of conservatism and libertarianism and I haven’t always been thrilled with the Republican candidates, I have always voted Republican because I believed they’d do much less damage than the Democratic candidate. I bought the idea that voting for a third party would be throwing my vote away. Now I’m not so sure and am seriously considering campaigning and voting for Bob Barr. I think voting for McCain or Obama might be the real waste of my vote because they both betray the founding ideals of this country. My husband is feeling much the same way. We’re only 2 data points but we can’t be the only ones.
FL might be up for grabs.
I got this link from Andrew Sullivan.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbvoters0712sbjul12,0,7473721.story
Zogby has been having some bad misses lately. A lot of the professionals tend to stay away from his polls because they’ve gotten too funky and too hit and miss.
[...] Radley Balko notes a “strange dichotomy” in the election polls: Obama’s lead in the national head-to-head polls is narrowing at the same time his Electoral College numbers based on state-by-state polls is widening. [...]
Polls don’t mean shiat. In the run-up to the ex-Gov Grey Davis recall election here in California, the LA Times poll had the recall losing 2-1 a week before the election. Polls are nothing but masturbatory material for pundits and people with too much time on their hands.
A little data point–there is an anti-gay-marriage amendment on the ballot in Fla this year. On nov 4th, if O’Bama is declared a winner in Fla and Va, go on to bed ’cause it’s over. I’m a Fla Dem ‘block captain’ and frankly expect to live in a red state for at least a while longer.
“…that kind of showing from Barr would also force the GOP to pay more heed to its neglected limited government wing, and less to its David Brooks faction. So that would in general be a pretty good thing.”
Oooh, can we get a new Contract with America? Maybe this time, the GOP will listen to part of it. Nah, it’s gonna be a long time before the Rep brand can recover
I haven’t revisited the Barr record sufficiently to be certain I will vote for him in November. He is the best chance to vote for smaller government that I see presently. My primary criterion for whether or not I can vote for a candidate: His election would be a step forward from the present state in the direction of limited government. That is, my best evaluation of the legislation he will sign and his use of executive power will result in a federal government that is smaller in terms of regulatory power and economic footprint and more active in championing civil liberties than the one we have today. I am not asking for a candidate promising miracles or perfection, just a reasonable expectation of forward progress.
By that criterion, I absolutely cannot vote for Obama or McCain. People can spout whatever sophistry they like about “wasting your vote”, but there is no vote more counterproductively cast than one spent to promote an agenda you oppose.
I actually think that Nader’s run in 2000 did push the Democrats leftward. But, that’s something difficult to quantify. Whatever the effect of Nader, it is undeniable that the GOP will never adopt a small government platform if it thinks it can win elections without one. If McCain wins this election, not only will we have a larger and more intrusive government because that’s his nature, but we will also have a GOP convinced that the “formula” for victory is some small government talk sprinkled on its huge government walk.
I have nothing against McCain personally and I hate the idea of one or two more Stephen Breyers on the SCOTUS. But, those judges will just be replacing other retiring statist judges, not shifting the balance. And, given his anti-free market thinking, it’s not like McCain would leave us with a Lochner-era court anyway.