The Race Today

Friday, June 27th, 2008

Pulling polling data from Real Clear Politics, here’s the how the electoral map’s shaping up 4 1/2 months out. Obama’s leading handily in all the states Kerry won, plus he’s leading in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and Indiana—all Bush states in 2004. Those last two are killers. If McCain has to spend money in my home state of Indiana, he’s in big trouble.  Bob Barr could also give McCain problems in North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, and possibly Montana.  Of course, it’s very early. The polls are likely to waver several times before November.  And who knows what sort of Bradley Effect we’ll see on Election Day. But for now, it looks like a long slog for McCain.

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31 Responses to “The Race Today”

  1. #1 |  Jim Peterson | 

    McCain voted for the IMBRA law which ends online dating anonymity and freedom. Now Americans have to be background checked before being allowed to communicate with foreigners online. So much for the Right to Assemble without government interfering in the hello process between two people.

    This is part of the reason why the Bush/McCain crowd is no longer respected.

    If the LP starts polling at 6% across the board, McCain may have to refuse the nomination in September and give it to Sanford or some other libertarian.

  2. #2 |  Marc | 

    I have to wonder what sort of affect Obama’s change on FISA and his recent NAFTA statements will have on his support among younger voters. Many viewed him as different and as change. As they see him saying and doing anything to get elected, will this leave them disenchanted?

    Will they stay home in November? 18-30 year olds have been known to do that.

  3. #3 |  j.d. | 

    i think obama will take alaska based on Barr and the strong LP showing they have.

  4. #4 |  Lee | 

    I’m going waaaay out on a limb here and say Texas goes to Obama.

    Probably not, but just in case I wanted to be the first to call it ;)

  5. #5 |  Bot | 

    We’ll be seeing McCain in Viagra ad’s come next Spring.

    This election will be a redux of the Bob Dole smackdown.

  6. #6 |  Nobody | 

    As Rummy would tell you, that might be a positive. It all depends on how you define “slog”.

  7. #7 |  Jim Peterson | 

    Exactly. I fear the Republicans are deliberately sitting this election out with a placeholder like Bob Dole, knowing that the deal is that one family gets to run things for 8 years and the next family runs things for 8 years.

  8. #8 |  Jaisn | 

    I’m also from Indiana originally and I’m shocked to see Indiana colored blue, even 4+ months out. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that. In fact I never thought I’d see that.

  9. #9 |  Buck | 

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see Obama take Georgia.

  10. #10 |  James D | 

    When people start seeing that he has flip-flopped on every issue except abortion (the guy is making Kerry look good now), I think this map will change. (Hell he flip-flopped in the same day yesterday when it came to the DC Gun Ban ruling!) Marc is right … when the idealistic, liberal youth see that even HE isn’t as liberal as they were hoping, they might not show up to vote in the numbers being predicted.

    I think, in the end, it will probably come down to Ohio again. The map above takes into account a lot of known liberally biased polls, throw those out and the only state not decided on is Ohio, with both candidates under 270 electoral votes.

    There’s a million of these out there and they are constantly evolving … I won’t pay ateention to them until after September.

  11. #11 |  Salvo | 

    I subscribe to what I call the “bread and circuses” theory of American politics: whatever people say are the important issues, in this day and age what they really want is to be entertained, and they will vote for the candidate that is the most entertaining, that doesn’t come across as your stereotypical nerd. I believe it’s why Clinton won over Bush and Dole, and why Bush II beat Gore and Kerry.

    Another way of stating it is that we haven’t come very far since high school class elections; we like to think we’re voting the issues, but really, the public is just voting for the in-crowd.

    Which is why McCain is toast, if he doesn’t raise his CHA score.

    (The above is why I could never run for office.)

  12. #12 |  Zeb | 

    I’m still hoping that somehow things will work out so that we go for 4 years without a president and see how that works out.

  13. #13 |  jwh | 

    There’s a reason the election is in November…….

    Hey, Rads, keep this image handy and let’s see what it looks like come 5 Nov. I think it there will be some significant differences…..

  14. #14 |  James D | 

    Unfortunately Salvo, I think you’re right … the guy “who most Americans can see themselves sitting down and having a beer with” is usually the guy who wins, regardless of the issues.

    Sounds good at first, Zeb. But do you want THIS current congress in charge then? That’s just as scary to me as an Obama presidency.

  15. #15 |  Bot | 

    James D.

    I’m with you, but then again, who wouldn’t love to throw back a cold one with Walter Mondale.

  16. #16 |  Ali | 

    “McCain voted for the IMBRA law which ends online dating anonymity and freedom. Now Americans have to be background checked before being allowed to communicate with foreigners online. So much for the Right to Assemble without government interfering in the hello process between two people.”

    That seems a little random, but in any case, what you’ve said about IMBRA is completely false. It only requires that you check a box when you’re filling out a K-1 form that admits you met your fiancee through a marriage broker. It’s designed to curb the epidemic of domestic violence against mail order brides. Then, if you’ve got a record of wife-beating, they’re going to tell your fiancee at the consulate. There are plenty of ways to meet people on the Internet that don’t involve marriage brokers; don’t be ridiculous.

    Whether the government interferes and pries far too much in the process of bringing a foreign spouse to the U.S. is another matter.

    And although I’m no McCain fan, I have to say, he was hardly the key party in passing IMBRA.

  17. #17 |  Tokin42 | 

    Unless Bayh is the Veep candidate or Lake Co. finds some way to come up with another few hundred thousand more votes than they found during the primary there is zero chance Obama wins in Indiana.

    I’m sticking with my original prediction stated here at the end of last year, no way Obama wins the presidency. There are too many dem voters who are not going to vote for “the black guy” regardless of what they tell pollsters.

  18. #18 |  Paddy | 

    There is no way IN and OH go for Obama. Virginia is a toss-up state, and McCain wins New Mexico. Obama will win in Iowa, Minnesota (unless McCain picks Pawlenty), and Wisconsin thanks to socialist leanings of all three. Obama can win Colorado and probably will. Obama will do well in Georgia but lose. He will lose the entire south. McCain couldn’t pick off Michigan if he promised to move the capital to Detroit. The person that said Texas goes to Obama was also taking a gigantic bong hit. McCain will win in New Hampshire and possibly the north of Maine. McCain will win all 3 of the Nebraska at large districts. McCain could lose Missouri because of voter fraud in St. Louis. That’s the secret to the US attorney scandal. Democrats know if they get some young gun poking around in St. Louis, St. Paul, and New Mexico, they will lose about 15,000 key votes in each state.
    I do not understand this Libertarian love affair with Barack Obama? He is a big government liberal.
    If you think Indiana will go to Obama it is because you are hoping it will, kind of like hoping your straight holds up when there are 4 clubs on the board.

  19. #19 |  Radley Balko | 

    If you think Indiana will go to Obama it is because you are hoping it will, kind of like hoping your straight holds up when there are 4 clubs on the board.

    Well, no. I made Indiana blue because the last five polls taken in Indiana show Obama with a very slight lead.

    I made clear in the post–the color of each state is taken solely from the latest polling data, summarized at Real Clear Politics.

  20. #20 |  Paddy | 

    Two things, the so-called Bradley affect happens prior to election day. Election day is game day and many big media types hate game day because all the pulling they’ve done for democrats in their polls gets undone.
    Also I do not understand the open cheering for Obama by supposed freedom loving libertarians!
    One last thing, did you see that fucking retard from Mass. Delahunt say he hoped terrorist would see Addingtons face on TV? Where’s the outrage? You are one of the biggest Cheney haters out there. This guy Addington is being destroyed because 3 members of the worlds worst terrorist organization were water-boarded. You either really are a liberal or worse, you feed your site with liberal talking points so you can score a job in the MSM.

  21. #21 |  MikeL | 

    Do a google image search on Addington. Multiple images will come up. Sorry, it was already common knowledge. See John Cole’s post for more on this instance of fauxtrage.

  22. #22 |  Paddy | 

    That is stupid. I saw the exchange. The hack from Mass clearly implied that he would like the shitbag terrorists to see him on CSPAN. Of course al queda could have found his picture somewhere else. The deal is Delahunt WAS ROOTING FOR THE BAD GUYS. Let’s just get it out in the open, a lot of shitbags have been pulling for the other team just to make Bush look bad. Fucking guys Balko’s age are over there driving around in the desert. This is not an illeagal war. All the waterboarding stuff can be debated, I’m not for it myself, but there is a lot of pulling for the bad guys out there, some of it on this site.
    Everyday between this site and Andrew Sullivan there is a new excuse to hate Bush. The guy will be gone in 6 months and if he was shitting all over the Constitution let the al Queda lovers in Congress bring impeachment hearings.
    Jesus Christ this country has become the biggest bunch of Euro wannabee pussies.
    Did you know that gas is over 5 bucks a gallon in Australia? It’s fucking high everywhere because it’s a commodity freely traded on markets all over the world. I see people blaming Bush for it and I scratch my head. What the Fuck is he suppose to do close down the exchanges? It’s not his fault but I hear people say it’s his fault because Cheney ran Haliburton. Bull Shit! Corn subsidies are the reason and it’s Bushes fault. Bull Shit!
    They waterboarded that POS Khalid Sheik Camel. If it were found out that he knew of an impending attack and he wasn’t waterboarded they would have burned the White House down. You guys act like you’re in a poker hand by yourself and you always have aces.

  23. #23 |  Paddy | 

    DELAHUNT: Right. Well, I’m — I’m sure they are watching, and I’m glad they finally have a chance to — to see you, Mr. Addington, give —

    It’s the way everything is now. Scalia hads down a ruling that says owning a gun is an individual right. He shatters this hope on the left about having to be in a militaia but, everyone on the left says he didnt say that and it doesn’t matter. Call Obama a liberal and someone trys to tell you he’s not. Delacunt says he was not talking about Al Queda.

  24. #24 |  JohnMcC | 

    “Delacunt”–charming. Your mother’s very proud. Actually, Obama leads in the polls (and strongly contests very ‘red’ states like Mississippi) because majorities prefer the ‘liberal’ solution to issues like the economy, healthcare, social security, industry-regulation and even Iraq/Afghanistan.

    I understand that the dirty language is only a cover for a brilliant mind and that you have correct opinions and majorities of Americans are wrong. But sadly for you, this is a democracy.

  25. #25 |  CK | 

    In 2000, Gore failed to take his home state of TN. AZ has a huge retiree population. McCain is on board with the President’s anti Social Security moves.
    Ah the sweetness of seeing a collaborator go down, again, in flames. I expect McCain will take Utah, beyond that…maybe Wyoming unless Barr gets his ass in gear there.

  26. #26 |  Paddy | 

    #24 mcc: majorities prefer the ‘liberal’ solution/and strongly contests very ‘red’ states like Mississippi
    #25 McCain is on board with the President’s anti Social Security moves.
    What the @#$@ are you talking about? You guys are in the same dream world as Mike Dukakis in ’88. If you look at the map above and compare it to ’68, ’76, ’80, ’84, ’88 and ’96 you’ll see that McCain is doing better than all of the Republicans during the same period. You’re like the guy on his way into the casino. He’s so sure he’s going to win despite the odds and his past performance, it truly is the one time he can talk himself into believing he’s a winner.
    And Bob Barr? He isn’t going to win one single state. I like him and would even maybe vote for him, but you’re living in a dream world if you think he can make a difference.
    You on the left are so full of rage you can’t see straight. When McCain wins with about the same number as GWB did in ’04 you will be outraged. You’ll be beside yourselves.
    When I first moved to Minneapolis I was shocked to see the number of co-workers that were not afraid to become beligerant and angry at work about the President. They would openly call Ann Coulter a cunt in meetings. They would rip our biggest client for dominating it’s business, even though we depended on them for about half our revenue. Nobody said a thing because they were just angry liberals and this was a liberal state, donchaknow. You’d see these retards riding their bikes to work when it’s fucking ten below and then complain about having to pay fucking $4 for a flu shot and how some SUV almost plowed into them.
    There is a plain Republican strategy for this election year being laid out by it’s operatives, governors Swartzenegger, Pawlenty, Daniels, etc, and McCain and his people. They are clearly running to the middle and they understand that no matter what, no matter all the Nader and Hillary and Bob Barr bull shit, it comes down to will this country give the keys to this relativly young black liberal guy with a funny name? That’s why McCain is doing so well in the map above to begin with, and he hasn’t done anything yet. Think about this, has McCain peaked yet? Has Obamba? Put that thought into the equasion as you look at Balko’s stupid map.

  27. #27 |  JohnMcC | 

    Well gosh, MrPaddy, compared to your post I’m obviously going to have to re-double my anger-management meetings.

    Regarding the economy: 2008 Gallup–“79% of Americans hold negative views about the economy while 13% hold mixed views and only 5% hold positive views.”

    Regarding health care: 2007 CBS poll shows 90% of Americans say the U.S. needs ‘fundamental’ changes or should be ‘completely rebuilt’.

    Regarding Social Security: 2006 Gallup–60% of Americans disapprove of the Bush Admin private accounts proposal.

    Regarding industry regulation: (when I dashed that off I had the sub-prime mess in mind altho I didn’t say so): 2005 Harris: “59% of investors think that the financial and accounting regulations…are too lenient.”

    Regarding Iraq: will show you scores of polls over many years in which the approval of the Bush war policy is scarcely ever more that 30–35 %.

    Which discontent fuels the popularity of liberal solutions and the almost certain defeat of Mr McCain.

    And please–try to keep yourself under control. It’s hard to clean your spittle off the inside of my computer screen.

  28. #28 |  Paddy | 

    Did you see the favorables for both candidates? McCain is at 56% and Obama 60 despite being an evil Republican and Obama being fawned over by big media for the last 6 months. McCain is shaping up nicely as a nice old guy war hero alternative to a chicago liberal. We Republicans are evil, but we’re smart and the election is shaping up just about the best way we could hope considering George Bush is a war criminal that hordes gas in his basement.

  29. #29 |  Rube | 

    Jim Peterson,

    IMBRA only applies to MALE Americans, not FEMALE Americans. It’s all about the EQUALITY that feminism preaches and all…

  30. #30 |  JohnMcC | 

    Nice old guy too stupid or careless to pay his taxes.

  31. #31 |  Ali | 

    Rube: That’s patently untrue. Again.

    But how many women do you know who have used a marriage broker?

    If you’d like to bash feminists, please get your facts right. Although I suppose there’s no point in bolstering an already paper-thin argument, huh?