Pulling polling data from Real Clear Politics, here’s the how the electoral map’s shaping up 4 1/2 months out. Obama’s leading handily in all the states Kerry won, plus he’s leading in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and Indiana—all Bush states in 2004. Those last two are killers. If McCain has to spend money in my home state of Indiana, he’s in big trouble. Bob Barr could also give McCain problems in North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, and possibly Montana. Of course, it’s very early. The polls are likely to waver several times before November. And who knows what sort of Bradley Effect we’ll see on Election Day. But for now, it looks like a long slog for McCain.