Predicitons

Friday, February 15th, 2008
  • Obama will win the Democratic nomination.
  • Obama will beat McCain in a landslide. Not Reagan-Mondale proportions. But certainly at least by Clinton-Dole proportions.
  • Over/under on the number of pundits/politicians/etc. who–intentionally or otherwise–will get in trouble for saying something racially offensive about Obama: 6.
  • Over/under on the number who will lose their jobs because of it: 2.
  • Over/under on the number of times someone on the Fox cable network will mistakenly refer to Obama as “Osama” between now and the election: 7.
  • McCain will take a hard right on the drug war, as well as on other culture war issues like porn, violence in movies and video games, and civil liberties.
  • Obama will demagogue free trade, the price of oil, and corporate profits (yeah, I know, I’m not really going out on a limb on this one).
  • McCain will pick Joe Lieberman as his running mate. Obama will pick Joe Biden. This is pure speculation on my part. But I’m guessing Obama will want some Beltway heft on his ticket. McCain will try to score points with the media by picking an ex-Democrat, but he’ll also score points with the right for picking an ex-Dem who’s pro-war, pro-Israel, pro-culture war, and pro-torture.
  • The far right will eventually rally behind McCain, but he’ll still lose.
  • The Clintons will grumble and half-heartedly support Obama. They’ll lose their place in the party.
  • Get ready for Jeb Bush in 2012!
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35 Responses to “Predicitons”

  1. #1 |  Chris Bray | 

    Joe Biden’s mouth is so totally not a campaign asset. And Joe Lieberman? Bleeeeeeech, ugh. *Shudder*.

  2. #2 |  Tom | 

    Black man with a Muslim name as president- ain’t gonna happen. He may even lead in the polls up to election day but there will be a huge turnout of traditional Americans who will make sure he is not elected.

  3. #3 |  John | 

    McCain will take some core conservative belief he has always quietly agreed with and try to make it a central issue even though he’s never bothered doing anything about it until he was running for president.

    Something scandalous from Obama’s past will come forth at an obviously strategic time. He’ll make some speach denying it or apologizing for it. Foxnews will try to paint him as another Clinton, thinking that it’s a negative thing. It won’t make any difference.

    Hillary Clinton’s concession speech will be run continuously on loop on Foxnews until the following Sunday. Bill Clinton will spend most of his time living somewhere sunny. He’ll regret sending Elian back to Cuba when that excludes Miami.

    Obama’s presidency will consist of partisan fights over federal judges and his attempts to pass small time liberal legislation that will end up a gobbledygook of comprimises and add-ons. He’ll have two major policy initiatives. The first will go far before failing. The second will blow-up on the launch pad. He’ll largely stay out of the economy and foreign affairs boondoggles. He’ll take credit for a good economy and restored credit on the world stage, and he’ll win re-election.

  4. #4 |  maxnnr | 

    No more Bushes or Clintons ever. We’ve already had 20 years of these losers and enough is enough already.

  5. #5 |  DontBurnTheDay | 

    I think Obama wins, and if he can do something about the drug war, offer a middle class tax cut, and change the direction of foreign policy, I’ll consider him a sucess.

    I think your VP picks are way off. Although the right loves Lieberman because of his pro-war positions, no way are they going to accept some of his liberal social issue stands. I think Mark Sanford will be the VP pick. Obama will look at Sam Nunn, Bob Graham or Jim Webb as his vp.

  6. #6 |  airforce | 

    I’m still thinking McCain will pick Tom Coburn for his running mate. He must have promised Coburn something for that surprise endorsement.

  7. #7 |  Marty | 

    This election is a cruel joke. Predicting the outcome is like trying to predict the outcome of the Mardi Gras weiner dog race… Even if your predictions are right, who cares?

  8. #8 |  Lee | 

    Obama as “Osama”: 7 …per day.

  9. #9 |  Tokin42 | 

    Obama loses, narrowly, and we have to listen to 4 years of “why are there so many racists in america?” from the press.

  10. #10 |  Laconic | 

    Is a prediciton like a graviton? ;)

    I don’t think the US is ready for a black president. Even a half-black one. And I’m still not voting for McCain.

  11. #11 |  Mikestermike | 

    South Park really nailed it on the head with Douche Bag vs. Turd Sandwich.
    At least I will be voting, and I wil not vote for either one. See, there really are choices when you have third/fourth party candidates…Mine will be Unknown Jerk……..

  12. #12 |  Bruce | 

    Is this post a joke?

    There is no way McCain is choosing Leiberman. Repubs already view him as being to far left.

  13. #13 |  supercat | 

    //There is no way McCain is choosing Leiberman. Repubs already view him as being to far left.//

    Perhaps, but that doesn’t imply that McCain won’t decide he’d rather court left-wing voters that right-wing ones–never mind the blood bath such behavior will cause down-ticket.

    I shouldn’t try to predict what McCain will do; he’s probably not quite as evil as I think he is. Better to just watch to see what he does.

  14. #14 |  Greg N. | 

    I’ll take all the unders. The rest seem pretty spot on. One more prediction: President Obama restricts the federal marijuana raids, but doesn’t move toward decriminalization.

  15. #15 |  Mike Schneider | 

    McCain will beat the pants off Obama. In particular, he’ll chew him up, bones and all, during the two televised pre-election debates that all Americans who’ve blown off the entire campaign so far will tune in to watch prior to finally making up their minds.

  16. #16 |  old | 

    Over/under on the number of times someone on the Fox cable network will mistakenly refer to Obama as “Osama” between now and the election: 7.

    I will definitely take the over on that one. I know they can pull that off on one show. Who is going to sit there and watch Fox news 24/7 to keep the counter? Are they reliable with good hearing? How much can I put down on this wager? Who holds the dough? Are they reliable? Will the pay-off happen as soon as they hit eight, or will I have to wait until after the inauguration?

  17. #17 |  FP | 

    Biden? Of “clean negro” fame? Of sexist vawa law fame? I don’t see it happening, nor Liberman.

  18. #18 |  Gerald A | 

    I see McCain losing 2 to 1, or worse. The far right won’t show up. When the MSM turns on him after the convention, “new” revelations about the last member of the Keating 5 still in the senate.

    With the amount of baggage McCain comes with, it will be a bloodbath.

  19. #19 |  Balko Predicts A Couple Of Joes | VeepWatch | 

    […] Balko, a senior editor at Reason and editor of The Agitator, makes his predictions: McCain will pick Joe Lieberman as his running mate. Obama will pick Joe […]

  20. #20 |  primus | 

    McCain will pick Ron Paul as VP, he will mop the floor with BO. Yankees who haven’t voted in decades will, just to beat a ‘black’ man. The same would happen if HRC wins the nomination. No way the USans are ready for a black OR a woman as POTUS.

  21. #21 |  Knaw | 

    You’re way off on the Fox News “Osama” references and the VP picks.

    Joe Biden would offer nothing in the way of electoral math to the ticket, plus his old age and gaffe-abundant mouth make his a liability on the campaign trail.

    And Lieberman would be a terrible idea for McCain. McCain is already under fire from the right wing for being a “closet liberal”, so choosing an ex-Democrat would be the final nail in his coffin.

    As for Fox News, I bet they’re thinking up all sorts of creative and not-so-creative ways they can bring up the Osama name similarities right now. They’re probably giddy with anticipation.

  22. #22 |  dmac | 

    Over/under on the number of pundits/politicians/etc. who–intentionally or otherwise–will get in trouble for saying something racially offensive about Obama: 6. Definitely over. I would set this higher, around 12.

  23. #23 |  DaveT | 

    “Get ready for Jeb Bush in 2012″

    *heaves violently*

  24. #24 |  Mike Schneider | 

    I agree with Primus: the Veep choices will have a huge and probably deciding influence on the race.

    (Unfortunately I really don’t see McCain picking Paul…although honestly it’s absolutely the very best thing he could do.)

  25. #25 |  Sasha | 

    I think you have the number who call him “Osama” quite low. If one includes Faux News, I’d say 11. I don’t think McCain will pick Lieberman. I’m thinking Kay Bailey Hutchinson. And I totally hope that Obama picks Chris Dodd. Joe Biden can be Secretary of State.

  26. #26 |  Jethro | 

    “Get ready for Jeb Bush in 2012?

    I hope not. I want to see something like a Palin/Jindal Republican ticket in ’12.

  27. #27 |  Phelps | 

    Fox won’t have any Obama/Osama problems. They know people will be watching for it. You can’t beat CNN and MSNBC for general incompetence and doucebaggery, though, so I think you will get to 7 easily between the two of them.

    And McCain might indeed pick Lieberman, and if he does, he won’t break 25%. He would be courting voters who are going to vote D anyways, and kill any base support. He’s already perceived as being too far left, and Lieberman is authentic left.

  28. #28 |  TDL | 

    Richardson makes more sense as Obama’s VP selection. McCain can select Jesus as his VP and still lose.

    Regards,
    TDL

  29. #29 |  Alex | 

    Jim Webb is the obvoius pick for Obama. He’s perfect (for Obama) in every conceivable way.

  30. #30 |  dave.s. | 

    Oh, come on! Biden??? he continually embarrasses himself. Open mouth, insert foot. And he is a Senator, has never run anything. Obama needs a governor. Bredesen, Sebelius, Napolitano. Warner is the Dems’ ticket to the second VA senate seat, he can’t be spared, nor can Webb.

  31. #31 |  Guido | 

    “Over/under on the number of times someone on the Fox cable network will mistakenly refer to Obama as “Osama” between now and the election: 7. ”

    Shouldn’t this read: “Over/under on the number of times someone on the Fox cable network will “mistakenly” refer to Obama as “Osama” between now and the election: 7.”
    lol.

  32. #32 |  zombyboy | 

    “(Unfortunately I really don’t see McCain picking Paul…although honestly it’s absolutely the very best thing he could do.)”

    Why? Because Paul will bring that extra 4% of the vote that he’s been missing? Or, maybe, because it would establish his bona fides with the anti-war folks? Or, perhaps, you were thinking that it would bring in extra white supremacists? Nah, can’t be that, he’ll already get the “I ain’t votin’ for a black man” block by default.

    No, no, I know, it’s because the gold standard hordes were just dying to find a reason to believe that McCain was the guy to make their wishes come true.

    Yeah. That would really blow it open.

    Whatever anyone thinks of Ron Paul, not only would it not be the very best decision that McCain could make for VP, it would be a ludicrous proposition. They don’t have much in common and Paul won’t make McCain into a viable candidate for the libertarians, anti-war activists, or any of the others that have rallied to Paul.

    Which is okay: frankly, he doesn’t need those folks to win the election. He needs to woo the conservative base without losing the independents–that will be tough since movement conservatives are in a mood to fight and he’s not a particularly conservative candidate. Moving to far right, though, will lose his natural constituency: moderate Republicans and independents who admire his “maverick” brand.

    If Obama is the nominee on the other side–and he is–then McCain has an uphill battle to winning the presidency. If Hillary had been the candidate, I think he would have chewed her and Bill up, spit them out, and taken the White House by a huge margin. But Obama isn’t an unlikable, arrogant shrew, he’s just a stealth lefty waiting to unleash a speedy financial doom on the country’s economy.

    We can talk bad about Bush all we want, but an Obama presidency will be a much more painful thing for conservatives and libertarians–not always for the same reasons, but the results will be like slow torture. Expansive new social programs that will dwarf the Bush errors (the pill bill will look tiny compared to whatever flavor universal health care Obama and a friendly congress tosses on our backs), for example.

    The next four years could be brutally painful.

    Of course, for libertarians and Democrats, the pain might be just as pronounced with a McCain White House.

    Which goes to show that when you’re a libertarian, you just can’t freakin’ win. Poor bastards.

  33. #33 |  ResurrectionSong | 

    Okay, Feel Free to Disagree…

    I left a comment in response to comment #24 over here because of a post that I read here (thanks for the link, Rob!), but I didn't want to deprive people of the opportunity to disagree with me here. So, here goes: "(Unfortunately I really don…

  34. #34 |  zombyboy | 

    And for the record, sharp-eyed editorial types: for today, can we pretend that to, too, and two are all spelled the same ways?

    Please?

  35. #35 |  The Agitator » Blog Archive » Biden | 

    […] humble Agitator predicted the Biden pick last February. It was a prediction made mostly from cynicism. I wish I had been […]

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