TheAgitator.com
Predictions
Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008Here’s how I think the next week will go:
Iowa:
GOP:
Huckabee (33%)
Romney (25%)
Paul (17%)
McCain (12%)
Giuliani (6%)
Thompson (5%)
Dems:
Clinton (30%)
Obama (29%)
Edwards (27%)
Richardson (5%)
Biden (5%)
Dodd (1%)
New Hampshire
GOP:
Romney (30%)
McCain (22%)
Paul (19%)
Huckabee (11%)
Giuliani (7%)
Thompson (4%)
Dems:
Obama (35%)
Edwards (23%)
Clinton (17%)
Richardson (16%)
Dodd (3%)
Biden (1%)
Obviously, I think the big winners will be Romney, Edwards, Obama, and Paul. Romney losing Iowa would’ve been an upset six weeks ago. Even though he’s spent a ton of money there, he can probably now lose in Iowa and still plausibly declare some sort of “comeback victory” if he closes to within 5 percent of Huckabee. Such is the weird expectations game. Going into South Carolina, Romney would be the clear frontrunner, with Huckabee, Paul, and McCain fighting it out for second. Huckabee will nudge ahead of Paul, and finish second in total delegates.
The big losers I think will be Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Clinton I think could still mount a comeback. If current polling trends (and my predictions) pan out, I think Giuliani is toast. Thompson’s probably done, too.
If all of this comes to light, look for the GOP establishment to very quickly close ranks behind Romney. They’ll want to freeze out McCain (whom they hate) and Huckabee (who embarrasses them) as quickly as possible. That would likely end McCain’s campaign, but probably not Huckabee’s. Huckabee could do very well in South Carolina and Florida, then continue to pull delegates across the Bible Belt. Paul will likely be a thorn in the party’s side well into the spring. He could easily win the Alaskan primary, and will probably put up a good fight in Nevada. And of course, he has plenty of money. He won’t win, but he looks certain to rack up way more delegates than anyone expected. Unfortunately, he won’t change the debate much. Romney and Huckabee will mostly ignore him, further alienating the leave-us-alone wing of the party. They’ll pay for it at the polls.
For the Dems, I think Clinton will try to play the establishment card as she continues to struggle–that she somehow “deserves” the nomination. She’ll look increasingly desperate as she does. Dodd and Richardson will drop out and endorse Obama. Biden will drop out and endorse Clinton. Edwards will stick it out to the end, and probably actually come in second.
Come November, I think we’re looking at Obama vs. Romney. That’s not great. But it’s nowhere near as bad as Clinton vs. Giuliani. Bloomberg may well jump into the race, too. If he does, it’ll hurt Romney. But I think Obama wins either way. Bush-Cheney will continue to wear on voters, and Romney will find it too difficult to distance himself from the president after aligning himself rather closely with Bush throughout the primaries. Obama will run on a message of hope and optimism, with lots of promises for new liberal government programs. Romney will attack Obama’s lack of experience, and run on lots of promises for new conservative government programs. Fringe right-wing groups will perpetuate the “Obama’s a secret Muslim” slur. Lefties will take obligatory swipes at mormonism. Obama will win by a fairly significant margin, and Democrats will make huge gains in the Senate, and modest gains in the House.
The only thing I’m absolutely certain of is that most of these predictions will be wrong.
I have rather similar predictions. However, this: Fringe right-wing groups will perpetuate the “Obama’s a secret Muslim” slur. Lefties will take obligatory swipes at mormonism. Should be: Fringe right-wing groups will perpetuate the “Obama’s a secret Muslim” slur. Everybody will take obligatory swipes at mormonism.
Radley, what if the predictions are 100% right? What will that do to your credibility?..
Never, ever, ever speak in absolutes….
As a lefty myself, I don’t see us taking too many swipes at Mormonism (thanks to Harry Reid, mostly). I can, however, see the Democrat’s campaign (which should never be confused with lefties) taking a few veiled shots in Bible Belt purple states like NC, VA, and IA in a cynical attempt to win votes.
While I think you’re off base on your predictions, the only one that really jumps out as “completely wrong” is the suggestion that Bloomberg will pull more votes from the republican nominee than the dem.
If bloomberg runs, he’ll have to fall out from lack of support. There is no way national republicans are going to vote for bloomberg. If Giuliani manages to make it most republicans would have to hold their noses to vote for him, they aren’t going to do the same for bloomberg.
“He won’t win, but he looks certain to rack up way more delegates than anyone expected.” Half right on this sentence. He will win.
Thought game: Who would lose worst against Ron Paul in the national elections? Bloomberg would certainly run if Paul wins the Rep. nom. I think Hillary would least like to go against Ron, I suspect that Edwards would be the most competitive against Ron. Paul vs Edwards vs Bloomberg. “And there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth!” Bloomberg would obtain the WAPO, NYT, Newscorp, AIPAC, Military Industrial comples supporters and endorsements.
There is no way both candidates are going to be from non-Southern states.
I think you’re forgetting the effect of the superdelegates (which make up almost 20% of the nomination votes) in your analysis of the DNC race. To win, Obama doesn’t just have to beat Hillary; he has to beat her by a big margin.
The only way Ron Paul wins anything is if the mainstream media starts to actually take his views seriously. That is never going to happen. As far as the MSM goes, he’s a bigger nut than Ross Perot.
I just heard Judge Andrew Napolitano is going to endorse Ron Paul. If this is true, it could get interesting.
Radley,
I think you are underestimating how well Clinton will do in NH. I live in Manchester, and from everything I’ve been reading/hearing, she still has a narrow lead here.
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=UNH%2fWMUR+poll%3a+GOP+deadlock%2c+narrow+Clinton+lead&articleId=d7994061-ba99-47ad-a37c-c8e224b3acbb
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/primary2008_demprim10208.pdf
You can find other stuff at the Union Leader
http://www.unionleader.com/
And WMUR
http://www.wmur.com/index.html
You may be right about McCaine, though. I’ve seen some supporters out, but most seem to be pushing Romney, despite the Union Leader, Boston Globe. Boston Herald and Curt Schilling all endorsing McCaine.
Speaking in probabilities, I’d say that what Radley lays out is the most probable (though I don’t think that McCain will get quite the abrupt boot out the door by the party that Huckalump will once it’s clear that Romneybot will defeat him. McCain will still have influence in the Senate. Huckalump will be as useful as last week’s horoscope.)
But…
Here’s a fun whatif:
Obama v. Romneybot v. Bloomburg v. Paul
That would be fun. Probably still result in an Obama presidency, but fun.
I like your bullishness on Ron Paul, even though it’s completely unwarranted. Based on recent polling, I predict 8% in Iowa and 10% in NH. McCain will win NH regardless of what Romney does in Iowa. Obama may win NH but not by anywhere near the margin you predict.
Radley, I think your short-term analysis is probably pretty good. Certainly better than any alternative I would propose.
Long-term is a crapshoot, but I’d definitely prefer Obama and Romney to Clinton and Giuliani. Obama, because he’d likely be an effective consensus builder and Romney because he’d likely be a competent executive. (Don’t mistake that for an endorsement of either of their political philosophies…just my assessment of their personal/professional qualities.) Both Clinton and Giuliani are too polarizing and autocratic.
I actually think the most important thing at stake in this race is not the presidency itself, but the ideological trajectory of the American right for the next decade or so. Specifically, will the Paul phenomenon be enough to force a realignment of the national GOP’s priorities, or (more likely) will the complete rejection of Paul’s platform finally drive the libertarians and paleocons from the GOP?
Or neither, in which case I would say libertarian/constitutionalism as a viable political voice in the country is pretty well fucked for the forseeable future.
The best part of Clinton getting the nomination is a lot of Bill Clinton material on SNL – otherwise, it is only in my dreams that she does not get the nomination – I can’t see her being stopped.
A black man with a Muslim name has no chance to be elected President of the United States in 2008. Go Obama!
Radley,
Disappointed that you have not congratulated the Patriots-
Your predictions about the Repubicans may be right on except for Ron Paul- he has little support anywhere unless people decide not to vote for the evils of two lessers and vote for him.
The Dems- don’t know- Obama, don’t know if he can make it- Clinton I think may get the nod-
I am inclined towards McCain but won’t decide until I get to the polls. I have seen every candidate and have heard each one speak several times.Huckaberry impressed me the most with his presentation, of any candidate- I was shocked. Edwards impressed me the least. Clinton has the best inate intelligence of all candidates. Guiliani is the most insincere. Romney too slick. Biden makes good sense, Dodds is quite knowledgeable. Richardson the most sincere with the best experience. No one that excites me and 34% of my fellow NH’erites feel the same.
I could be hopelessly optimistic and basing my thoughts on biased or flat-out incorrect information, but as I’ve been exposed to people sharing their thoughts, views, and _actions_ based upon the ideas and principles Ron Paul espouses and holds to (as per his 10-year voting record), I believe that, due to the combination of apathy in pollees and old-style polling methods, the enthusiasm generated by Ron Paul’s expressed ideas and beliefs could completely blindside those relying on the “official” polls simply because, it seems to me, the average Ron Paul supported is more apt to _do something_ than supporters of the other candidates.
In this election cycle, I’ve changed party affiliation away from “Independent”, I’ve donated money to a political campaign, have been an advocate for a politician, his ideas, and his voting record in my small social circle, and as long as I am not struck down and killed before my state’s caucus/primary, I will be there, voicing my support for a candidate; all are things I’ve never done before. I like to imagine that this is common among Ron Paul’s supporters.
Having a political candidate who appears to understand the supreme law of the land and who also appears to abide by it actually excites me! The rule of law might have a long shot of being restored!
I didn’t manage to fit the whole of my post into a single sentence. I got carried away – I apologize.
Bah! I did not mention the little matter of the straw polls listed on http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com in that these polls require more effort on the part of the individuals being polled, and sometimes require a monetary fee to participate in an activity which has no official result at all. Ron Paul has had very strong support in the vast majority of said polls, which further bolsters my optimism for a suprise win or strong finish for Ron Paul in the official primaries.
The youth and independent vote is key for Paul .. Considering Independents nearly outnumber the Dems and Reps combined in Iowa as well as the history of Libertarianism in NH .. I make the following predictions
Iowa:
GOP:
Huckabee (28%)
Romney (26%)
Paul (22%)
McCain (18%)
Giuliani (4%)
Thompson (2%)
New Hampshire
GOP:
Paul (34%)
Romney (26%)
McCain (22%)
Huckabee (10%)
Giuliani (6%)
Thompson (2%)
“The only way Ron Paul wins anything is if the mainstream media starts to actually take his views seriously.”
Jack,
CNN stated this yesterday.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xh1oKtMS-LE
Wyoming Tomorrow
New Hampshire
Michigan
Nevada
South Carolina
Florida
Maine
Super Tuesday which Ron is budgeting for and has enough money to contend.
Michigan and Florida have been “punished” for moving their primaries forward from when the National Parties wished them to be held.
Rudy is counting on Fla, and avoiding Michigan where Ron is strong. Expect Ron to win Nevada.
“Expect Ron to win Nevada.”
I agree with this as well.
When are you deluded Paulites going to clue in on the fact that elections are stolen-loot-auctions?
He will never, ever see double-digits.
If the hope of ever seeing liberty and freedom become the norm in the USA again is delusional, then we as a country are much worse off than I first thought.
The amount of damage that could be done to the USA with eight years’ worth of vastly expanded governmental powers is almost unthinkable.
Of the two straw polls listed on http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com in Iowa, Ron Paul won one with ~25% of the votes, and came in 5th in the second with ~9% of the vote.
“He will never, ever see double-digits.”
In a state “reliant on cheap, migrant labor” and government corn subsidies, Ron Paul received one vote out of every ten Iowans who showed up to vote during the GOP caucus.
That’s 10%, two digits.
I wonder what’ll be happening now at Fox’s Jan 6th shindig; Guliani took a mere 3% of the vote and is scheduled to be included.