Optimism first.

The Colts. “Guarded optimism” is the psychological state I’m taking into the upcoming season. Edge is a big loss, but I’ve always thought both he and the Colts would do better if they parted ways. Edge didn’t have the drive Manning or, say, Harrison do. That can’t have made for good locker room chemistry. He was the most reliable 5-yard run in the league, but he hasn’t been a breakaway threat since his knee surgery. Dominick Rhondes and Joseph Addai both offer big-run potential. Edge was also one of the best backs in the league at picking up the blitz, and played no role in making Manning one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the league over the last few years. We’ll see if Rhodes and/or Addai are as apt.

On the defensive side, we lost two strong players, but will have our core three back in Freeney, Sanders, and Mathis. Tony Dungy’s cover defense is constructed in a way that allows for some free agent bleeding. Dungy’s scheme puts a premium on speed, and you can always draft speed (as the Colts did). Still, it’s a defense that takes a few years to learn. So it’s hard to see how a rookie or two in the secondary won’t be a liability.

After last year, it’s hard feel good about anything until the playoffs. We could 15-0, and I’d guess all the talk — not to mention sentiment in the minds of Colts’ fans — will be not about the great start, but if, like last year, it’ll be all for naught.

My best guess? We’ll easily win the AFC South. We’ll have the best or second best record in the league. And I’ll be nervous as hell come that first January playoff game.

Of course, for all the talk about Peyton choking in the playoffs, something tells me that if we’d had this guy the last three years, Peyton wouldn’t be carrying around that “can’t win the big one” weight. And now we’ve got him.

The Pacers. Here, I don’t know what the hell is going on. If you ask me, the two guys who’ve been poison on this team the last two years (other than Artest, of course) have been Stephen Jackson and Jamal Tinsley. Jackson’s a thug, a streaky shooter at best, and doesn’t play defense. Tinsley’s inconsistent, injury-prone, and seems to break out with attitude at the worst possible times. Yet those seem to be the only two guys Larry Bird and Donnie Walsh haven’t been shopping. Instead, the team let all-around good guy Fred Jones get away, and reports I’ve read suggest they’re trying to deal ass-breaking, o-rebounding, role-player extraodrinaire Jeff Foster, too. I’ve always though Austin Croshere was overpaid and overhyped, so I’m not too concerned about him getting away.

So what’s Bird doing? I haven’t the slightest idea. Maybe there’s a big deal in the works. But if this team loses Foster and Jones and puts Jackson and Tinsley on the floor again next year, I’m going to have a hard time getting excited come October.

This entry was posted on Saturday, July 29th, 2006 at 11:31 pm by Radley Balko and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.