I don’t know that I buy this. Just a thought that occured to me. Trowin’ it out on the porch, to see if any kitties lick it up.

It’s been well-reported that Harry Reid recommended Harriet Miers when President Bush consulted with him about possible Supreme Court picks. One can’t help but wonder, why would Harry Reid do that? I suppose it’s possible that Reid genuniely believes Miers to be well-qualified, brilliant, and moderate enough to suit Senate Democrats.

But it’s also at least possible that Reid was engaging in a little Machiavelian meneuvering. Follow me, here:

In Roberts, Bush chose a nominee with very little paper trail, and who wasn’t the kind of partisan fire-breather likely to attract the wrath of Democrats (and warm the cockles of conservative hearts). He sailed to nomination. Perhaps Reid sensed that Bush was looking for another sure thing. In other words, perhaps Reid knew that if he suggested someone even remotely acceptable to Bush, Bush would run with it, on the assumption that he wouldn’t have to endure a confirmation fight.

Now we could stop right there, and assume that Reid genuinely thought Miers was a solid pick. And while that might not give Reid a whole lot of credit in personality or qualifications assessment, it would at least paint him as a well-intenioned lawmaker looking to avoid an ugly confrontation.

But come on. We know that’s not a description of any U.S. Senator, much less one who has clawed his way the top his party’s leadership.

Here’s a more cynical, sinister possibility:

Reid knew full well that Miers was dim bulb, underqualified, was a Bush crony, and would pop veins in the foreheads of conservative opinion leaders. He suggested her anyway, knowing that (a) Bush would perk up at the prospect, knowing that Miers is loyal to the point of fawning, and that loyalty is really the only “qualification” this adminstrationt truly values, and (b) Bush was looking to avoid a fight. In other words, Reid set Bush up.

It’s perfectly plausible that Reid would know all of these things because, remember, Miers was in charge of the team Bush charged with finding O’Connor’s replacement. That means he’d probably had several conversations with her, giving him plenty of opportunity to soak in her intellect, background, and devotion to the president. It was also fairly widely known that a couple of weeks out from the announcement, Bush began to give Miers consideration as the actual nominee — meaning Reid knew if he suggested Miers, there was a strong possibility that Bush would go with her her. Reid also likely knew that after Roberts, the red meat right was hungry for an idealogue, feeling that Bush “owed them.” Many conservative pundits came right out and said as much.

If Reid did foresee, and indeed precipitate, the Miers storm, it’s clear how he benefits. The Miers nomination gets Bush in hot water with his base, and confirms the worst suspicions of him among the limited government crowd. Meaning an already wounded president grows weaker. It’s of course possilbe that Miers will be confirmed, then simply follow Scalia’s lead on the court. But I doubt that’s of much concern to Reid. He’s outnumbered in the Senate. Odds are, he was going to get a Scalia type anyway. If the end result is to get one that severely damages the president’s standing with his base in the process, and brings the conservative punditocracy bearing down on top of him, recommending Miers may have been Reid’s way of making do with what you’ve got. A Janice Rogers Brown or Michael Luttig would have inspired a Senate firefight, likely have been confirmed anyway, and sent an inspired right wing to the polls in droves come 2006. Not to mention the possibility that most any of the other short list candidates would been strong philospophical leaders from the bench.

In Miers, Reid gets a damaged Republican president, a lethargic conservative base going into 2006, and an intellectual lightweight — the least worst possible nominee, given who occupies the White House.

I don’t know much about Reid. Is he capable of such foresight? If so, it was a brilliant move. If not, he benefits just the same.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 12th, 2005 at 9:11 pm by Radley Balko and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.