TheAgitator.com
The Strategic Anti-Hillary Vote
Monday, November 1st, 2004I got an email from a friend of a friend the other day who said he appreciates my limited government case against President Bush, but that he’d be voting for Bush anyway, mostly because he’s scared to death of a President Hillary.
Well, with good reason. I too shudder at a Rodham presidency.
But I’m not sure how a second term for President Bush forestalls Hillary’s run. In fact, I think it both accelerates it and makes her election more likely.
Follow me, here. If Kerry wins, Hillary isn’t going run against him in 2008. She wouldn’t run against an incumbent from her own party. That puts her run off until at least 2012. Even then, you’d have to assume that a Vice President Edwards (either a two termer or four years removed from office) would be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
But if Bush wins? Hillary will amost certainly run in 2008. My thinking about Hillary has always been that should she run in an open year, she’d be a favorite to get the Democratic nomination, but she’d get slaughtered in the general election. But I’m not so sure she wouldn’t be competitive in 2008.
Even with a dramatic, tragic, uniting event like September 11, President Bush really hasn’t increased his overall standing with the electorate. He’s at just about the same place he was in 2000.
After eight Bush years, the country’s bound to feel a bit of GOP-in-the-White-House fatigue. All the more if we’re still bogged down in Iraq (or elsewhere), or should (God forbid) there be another terrorist attack.
In other words, I think Hillary might better her chances in a general election that allows her to run against Bush — as a referendum on a Bush III term, no matter who her actual opponent is.
So, um, if you really hate Hillary, vote Kerry!
Or something like that.
Think about it a little longer. If Kerry is elected and turns out to be a complete dud, Hillary will certainly challenge him, and may I add, win the democratic nomination. I doubt if she’ll win the general election though.
God save the queen.
If I have to vote for Kerry to avoid Hillary, it is definitely time for the island…
I made the same point over dinner and drinks last night. My view (hypothesis?) is that Hillary will cast her vote for Dubya today, to help her own candiacy in ’08.
Of course, she’ll publicly wave the Kerry flag and all that…
Even without another 9/11, there is no way Shillary will run against a President Kerry. That would be bad form. She NEEDS the GOP to win today.
Sadly, I’ve heard a terrifying alternative scenario–that if elected Kerry will appoint Hitlery to the Supreme Court. Maybe paranoia, but oh my god what a nauseating idea. This is the first time in my life that I’ve lost sleep over a presidential election, and it’s only because both possibilities make me sick to my stomach.
“After eight Bush years, the country’s bound to feel a bit of GOP-in-the-White-House fatigue.”
Hilarious understatement. With a deteriorating situation in Iraq, with a Pollyanna approach to war and insurmountable deficits, yes, the country would feel a bit of GOP-in-the-White-House fatigue.