My state-by-state presidential predictions, predictions for competitive senate races, and overall popular and electoral vote tallies. Yes, I’ll probably be wrong.

My general hunch is that momentum is swinging toward Kerry. That, and undecideds almost always break for the challenger in huge numbers. Bush is consistently polling somewhere between 46 and 48%, Kerry at about the same. That leaves 4-8% of the electorate undecided — just a hair less than the 10% that decided during election week in 2000. Kerry needs to win just two-thirds of those voters, though historical trends say he can expect to win 75-90% of them.

Bush needed to be at 50% — 49% at the very, very least — to feel good going into election eve. By most (though not all) counts, he isn’t there.

All the intangibles seem to bode well for Kerry too. If they matter at all, the mysterious cell phone voters (people (like me) who have cell phones but no land lines, and thus aren’t accounted for in polling) would seem to help Kerry. Early voting polls are favoring Kerry. New voter registrations favor Kerry. And I think passion and intensity favor Kerry, too. Republicans like to point out that Bush voters are much more pro-Bush than Kerry votes are pro-Kerry. That is, Kerry voters are more voting “against Bush” than “for Kerry.” The GOP spin is that this is a Bush advantage. I don’t agree. I think Bush hate is every bit as intense and motivating as Bush love. Probably more so.

For all of these reasons, I think Kerry will win both the popular vote and the electoral vote. Until today, I thought Bush might eke out a popular vote win, which would have laid out the delightful scenario where each party would be forced to recite the exact talking points the other party was making in 2000. With a straight face. Much as I’d love to see that happen, I don’t think it’s likely. Kerry has moved into a tie or slight lead in most polls — even without factoring in late-breakers.

Lots of you seem to think I’ll be joyed by a Kerry victory. Not really. Bush has been a monumental disappointment. That’s not reason for joy. The only reason I’m rooting for Kerry (I can’t bring myself to vote for him) is because I believe politicians should be held accountable for their mistakes. They serve at our discretion. When they screw up, they don’t get to serve us anymore. Bush needs to be held accountable. He needs to be fired.

But I won’t be happy about a Kerry presidency. And rest assured, barring any fundamental flip-flop in political philosophy on Kerry’s part, this blog will switch from a Bush-bashing site to a Kerry-bashing site pretty much the moment he takes office.

I’ll also say that there are a few slight advantages to either man winning. A Kerry win fires Bush. It signals an end to the Bush Doctrine. And it perhaps portends a slight easing of civil liberties restrictions, particularly on medicinal marijuana, and Ashcroft’s holy wars on online gaming, pornography, and (maybe) prescription painkillers.

A Bush win would have some advantages, too. He’s promising to introduce private Social Security accounts, though whether he has the political backbone or the political capital to see it through remains to be seen. Needless to say, I have my doubts. His “ownership society” talk is at least good rhetoric. Increased access to health savings accounts would introduce some needed consumer pressure on health care costs. And Tommy Thompson has been good on a few of the issues I cover, most notably obesity.

And given that there’s virtually no difference between Bush and Kerry on the occupation of Iraq, a second Bush term would hang the blame or credit for what ultimately happens there squarely on the person who deserves it — President Bush. Should Kerry win, we’ll forever be debating whether Iraq’s success was the result of Bush’s iron will, or Kerry’s diplomacy — or, conversely, whether the disaster of Iraw will have come about because of Bush’s tunnel-visioned stubborness or Kerry’s jelly-kneed flip-floppery. I of course think Iraq will be a disaster (though I hope otherwise). Should Kerry win, we’ll forever hear from the right how Kerry botched the place up, even though his Iraq policy at the moment is virtually indistinguishable from Bush’s. There’s something to be said for accountability. And a second Bush term will leave no doubt as to who’s responsible for what ultimately happens in Iraq.

On a related note, the Redskins lost on Sunday. Since the team came to Washington in the 1930s, a win in their last home game meant reelection for the incumbent party. A loss meant its ouster. It has worked in every election for 70 years.

Click “more” for my calls.

Alabama: An easy win for Bush. An easy reelection victory for Sen. Richard Shelby.

Alaska: Bush wins by 20+ points. But the GOP will lose a Senate seat, as Alaskans will oust Lisa Murkowski for former governor Terry Knowles. Murkowski gets a raw deal. She’s been a better senator than her dad ever was. But the blatant nepotism he displayed in appointing her as his replacement (he’s now Alaska’s governor) rightly rubbed many Alaskans the wrong way.

Arizona: Despite a brief flirtation with “tossup” status, Bush will take Arizona by a fairly comfortable 8-10 point margin. Sen. McCain has only token opposition in an election that will see very little money spent on either side – just the way he likes it. He’ll cruise to reelection.

Arkansas: Again a state that was briefly competitive, but settled in the Bush column. Bush wins Arkansas by about 5 points, and completes a sweep of the “A” states. Blanche Lincoln easily wins a second term in the Senate.

California: Never competitive. Kerry by 10-12 points. Barbara Boxer unfortunately keeps her Senate seat.

Colorado: Your humble Agitator once believed Colorado could be the Florida of 2004. No more. The ballot initiative to apportion electoral votes by popular vote percentage is down 10 points or more in most polls. Bush seems to have locked in a lead of 4-6 points. Oddly, just as Bush has secured the state for the presidency, Democrat Ken Salazar seems to be pulling a head of brewery legend Pete Coors for Ben Nighthorse Campbell’s open Senate seat. Salazar wins.

Connecticut: Sen. Chris Dodd will win comfortably. Too bad. And the state will go handily for Kerry.

Delaware: Among a handful of surprisingly close Northeastern states that will ultimately settle for Kerry, though by uncomfortably close margins.

Florida: Let’s start with the Senate race. Betty Castor against Mel Martinez. Five of the last six polls show Castor either just squeaking by or in a dead heat. Only one has Martinez up. So I’ll take Castor. The Democrats will hold Bob Graham’s seat. The presidency? Six of the last eight polls taken show Bush at 48% or above. Even if undecideds break 3-1 for Kerry, that wouldn’t be enough for him to take the state. I’m taking Bush. But it’ll be by less than 5,000 votes.

Georgia: Republicans pick up a Senate seat, though the moderate Johnny Isakson may prove to be a headache for Bill Frist. Bush wins the state easily.

Hawaii: I’m not sure I buy the polls showing Hawaii in a dead heat. I think the reliably Democrat state will go for Kerry by about 10 points. And Dan Innouye will win a woeful eighth term.

Idaho: Bush by a mile.

Illinois: Party hacks ran maverick, free thinking GOP Senator Peter Fitzgerald out of town. Now they’re going to get embarrassed on Election Day. Serves them right. Democrats pick up a Senate seat, and Kerry takes the state by 12 points.

Indiana: Odd thing about my home state. Even as the states around Indiana and across the Midwest go Democrat or prove to be battlegrounds (see Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, even Missouri), Indiana has never been competitive. It’ll go for Bush by 20 points. Odder still, Hoosiers will reelect a Democrat to the Senate, Evan Bayh. And by a comfortable margin. Also, former Bush OMB Director Mitch Daniels will retake the governor’s mansion for the GOP thanks to a folksy, unassuming campaign. Indiana is also typically the first state in the country to get its returns in.

Iowa: Another nip-and-tucker. Charles Grassley will easily defend his Senate seat, even though he’s a pork barrel king (last year he secured federal funds to build an indoor rain forest in Iowa). Bush shows a very slim lead in the polls in a state that went slightly for Gore in 2000. I’m guessing heartland post-9/11 fears and hawkish sentiment will tip Iowa to Bush.

Kansas: No contest. Bush wins big, as does incumbent Sen. Sam Brownback.

Kentucky: Bush will carry the state. But something weird is going on in the Senate race. GOP incumbent Jim Bunning has fallen off his rocker. A few Kentucky papers have changed their endorsements, and one question Bunting’s mental health. He still seems to be polling well enough to win, barring any last-minute wierdity.

Louisiana: Bush wins the state. GOP candidate David Vitter will pick up a Senate seat for the party, too — either on Election Day or in the runoff should he get less than half the vote.

Maine: Kerry seems to have shored up his lead here, though there’s a small possibility that one district in the state could go to Bush, meaning that Bush could steal an electoral vote (Maine apportions votes by congressional district). I’ll call the whole state for Kerry for now.

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski will flatten her opponent. Kerry wins by 12-15 points.

Massachusetts: Kerry big in his home state.

Michigan: Kerry’s been polling 2-4 points a head of Bush for a couple of months now. I can’t see why that won’t hold up in a state with a well-organized labor movement.

Minnesota: Here’s a traditional Democrat state where Bush is competing. I still think it will go to Kerry, but Bush made him spend money here that could have gone elsewhere.

Mississippi: Bush by a buttload.

Missouri: Once thought to be a battleground state, I think the GOP will pull a sweep in Missouri, winning the governor’s mansion, keeping Kit Bond’s Senate seat (again - too bad), and taking the state’s electoral votes for Bush.

Montana: Bush wins by 30.

Nebraska: Bush handily.

Nevada: Another swing state that doesn’t swing so much anymore. Bush seems to have tightened his grip on a state that’s getting more and more Democrat as its urban areas grow. This might be the last time the GOP can count on Nevada for awhile. Harry Reid will comfortably win reelection.

New Hampshire: I think Kerry picks up the only New England state that went red in 2000. He’s been consistently up by 3-5 points in the polls. Judd Gregg will keep his Senate seat for the GOP.

New Jersey: Polls show this one to be surprisingly close, but my dollar says Kerry takes it by 3-5 points.

New Mexico: With Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida, one of the true
“battleground” states. The others I think are settled, barring any huge shift in momentum. Bush is creeping ever closer to that 50 percent mark in the polls, so I’m putting New Mexico in his column. A pickup from 2000.

New York: Kerry wins the state big. And proving that life just isn’t fair at all, Chuck Schumer will win a second term in the Senate.

North Carolina: Another competitive Senate seat. Erskine Bowles has been leading most of the way, but conservative GOPer Richard Burr has just recently caught up with him. He has the momentum, and this is a pretty conservative state. The GOP picks up Sen. Edwards’ seat. And Bush takes the state by about eight points.

North Dakota: Democrat Senator Byron Dorgan wins easily. But Bush takes the state.

Ohio: Maybe the toughest call of the fifty states. Bush had a reliable lead here until about a month ago. The state’s economy is in the tank. Democrats blame that on jobs moving overseas. The more likely explanation is that Ohio has a God-awful Republican governor who has raised taxes and made the state one of the most business-hostile climates in the country. Up until the weekend, polls showed a dead heat or a slight Kerry lead, with President Bush at 44-47 percent - quite a bit below the 50 percent he needs to be near right now to be comfortable. Bush seems to have gained a bit of ground in the last few days, but I think Kerry wins with a healthy turnout in the three major urban areas and support from late-breaking undedicdeds. GOPer George Voinovich will have no problem winning another Senate term.

Oklahoma: What are Oklahomans to do? The conservative state likely wants to keep Republicans in control of the Senate. But they have a reasonable, conservative Democrat running against a hard-right, slightly crazy Republican, who - get this - first admitted that as an ob-gyn he sometimes sterilized women without their permission, then advocated the death penalty for abortion providers. Nutso. Nevertheless, Oklahoma will elect the nutjob by about 5 points. And Bush takes the state walking away.

Oregon: There’s been talk of Oregon has battleground material. I doubt it. I think Kerry and incumbent Ron Wyden take the state for the Democrats.

Pennsylvania: I don’t think it’s as close as the Bush campaign would like to believe. Kerry wins by about five, and Arlen Specter retains his Senate seat.

Rhode Island: Kerry easily wins.

South Carolina: Bush takes the state, and in a fit of poetic justice, avid free trader Jim DeMint picks up bass-ackward Ernest Hollings’ Senate seat for the GOP.

South Dakota: John Thune seems to have eked out a slight lead over Tom Daschle in the latest polls. In a state that will go overwhelmingly for Bush, that can’t be good news for the minority leader. Thune wins.

Tennessee: Bush wins by 8-10 points.

Texas: Bush. Big.

Utah: Bush by forty. Probably his biggest margin of victory. Bob Bennett wins an easy reelection to the Senate.

Vermont: Kerry and Leahy by lots.

Virginia: My current state of residence has been surprisingly competitive. Late polls show a Bush lead that’s within the margin of error. Still, I can’t see Kerry pulling it out. Virginia is still the south, though as Northern Virginia continues to bustle, the GOP will have a harder and harder time defending this state. Bush, by about three points.

Washington: An early swing state that settled down for Kerry. Republicans missed a golden opportunity to challenge weak incumbent Patty Murray in the Senate. She wins. Kerry wins.

Washington, D.C.: Kerry by eighty. That’s not an exaggeration.

West Virginia: Was close for a while, but Bush’s folksy charm and promised handouts to the coal industry will get him a win by about 6 here.

Wisconsin: Watch Wisconsin. It’s one of the toughest states to call. The latest polls show a virtual tie, with about 5-7 percent still undecided. Nader’s on the ballot here, or I think Kerry would win by 2-4 points. Still, if undecideds break Kerry’s way, I think he wins Wisconsin. Russ Feingold wins reelection.

Wyoming: Bush huge.

Final tally: Bush 266, Kerry 272.

Popular vote prediction: Bush 48.5%, Kerry 49.5%, Others 2%.

Senate prediction: GOP picks up two seats.

House prediction: GOP picks up four seats.

Early sign of a Bush rout: He wins Pennsylvania.

Early sign of a Kerry rout: He wins Florida by 11pm.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 1st, 2004 at 2:43 pm by Radley Balko and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.