TheAgitator.com
Where It Stands
Tuesday, July 20th, 2004If you plug the latest battleground state poll results from Real Clear Politics into the L.A. Times’ handy interactive electoral map, the race right now stands at Kerry 322 and Bush 216.
In 40 of 50 states, Bush is polling lower than his performance in the 2000 election. Kerry’s margin comes from his lead in 2000 red states Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri.
I wouldn’t trust the LA Times poll–the last nation wide poll they did they polled 50% more Dem than Reb.
thanks to radley and the likes who are voting for kerry simply bc they hate bush, i can already feel myself being income redistributed into the poorhouse. thanks a lot kerry voters! really appreciate it! rat bastards, the whole lot of ya. michelle
well, it must be time to dust off lee atwater’s guide to defeating democrats at the polls. you know, the GOP campaign message that hasn’t changed in 30 years—”(insert Dem pol. here) is a liberal, out of mainstream, liberal, liberal, liberal”
this may help with the enraged base—see Michelle above—but it doesn’t seem to hold as much sway over the undecideds as it has in the past, due to the changing perceptions of what “liberal” means. This is not a novel theory but rather a political reality reflected in scientific polling.
or it could be my belief, which is that his election is about competence. Hell, I don’t even need to so much as glance at the Nation to read critiques of Bush being incompetent. It’s plain in any recent issue of National Review, or intellectually honest op-ed writers like George Will. (I say “intellectually honest” to distinguish someone Will from the likes of Krauthammer or Novak–even though Novak has been pretty public in his doubts as well)
electionprojection.com is showing similar results.
If you’ve been tracking realclearpolitics.com for a while you will have noticed Bush’s disapproval numbers slowly tracking down.
Note the “dead cat” bounce Edward’s selection has given the Dems.
Sad that a VP selection is expected to “Kerry” the Dems presidential candidate. So far, it has failed to do so.
Guess Eisehnower, Churchill, Montgomery, et. al. were incompetent, as well
Beefcake Blogger,
I certainly hope you are correct that this election is about competence.
Perhaps you can make the case for Kerry’s in your next post.
It is true that one cannot so easily find critiques of Kerry’s competence.
Can you guess why?
Close elections, historically do not bode well for incumbents.
There is a historical poll about undecided voters in the past five elections. It states that 80% of undecided’s who vote, vote for the challenger NOT the incumbent.
If things stay the same through november, a 45/45 split. and there really is no reason to think otherwise, Kerry will win. thus, I am not surprised by the aforementioned electoral count.
Now you partisans can all tear me apart and say no way, my guy is better. That’s fine. You are part of the 45/45 split. You are not part of the 8-10% undecided.
Those figures sound improbable. Kerry may well win, but i’d be very surprised if the margin were more than a few states’ worth.
Michelle said, “thanks to radley and the likes who are voting for kerry simply bc they hate bush, i can already feel myself being income redistributed into the poorhouse. thanks a lot kerry voters! really appreciate it! rat bastards, the whole lot of ya.”
First of all, if you would take 10 minutes to actually read some of Balko’s previous posts on Bush and Kerry, you’d know that A) it’s not a given that he’s voting for Kerry, and B) even if he does, it will not be because he hates Bush, but because the GOP only seems to be able to find its conservative roots when a democrat is in office. And that is the single best argument for a Kerry vote that I’ve heard.
Furthermore, you say that you can already hear your income being distributed to the poorhouse. The reason you can already hear it is because it’s already happening under Bush. And it’s not just the poorhouse. It’s the pockets of the Pharma industry. Bush’s medicare entitlement welfare explosion is the single most expensive entitlement program in the history of the nation…and you’re worried about Kerry redistributing your income to the poorhouse? Did you know that Bush has increased nonmilitary discretionary spending by about 30% in his 3.5 years in office, the largest increase in decades?
Say what you will about Kerry supposedly being a big wealth-redistributing socialist, but he doesn’t hold a fucking candle to Big Spender Socialist Welfare Boy Bush. “thanks a lot kerry voters! really appreciate it! rat bastards, the whole lot of ya.” Um, yeah, you can also thank the Bush voters too. They gave us one hell of a great welfare socialist.
God, it cracks me up when people whine about how Kerry’s gonna be this big socialist welfare mama. Jesus, you blind partisan idiots, open your eyes. It’s going on, right now, in front of your nose, perpetrated by your own boy! Anyone who claims to be a fiscal conservative and is worried about Kerry’s liberal spending, but supports Bush, who is the biggest socialist spender since the New Deal, is nothing but a huge hypocrit.
I can`t comment on three of the states you mentioned but I have serious doubts about Kerry carrying Florida. Gore had Joe Lieberman wich gave him a big boost with the large Jewish vote in this state but Bush has made huge inroads with this vote with his Mid-East policies as well as his unwavering support for Israiel, North
Florida is Bush country and South Florida is much more Bush friendly today than it was four years ago. Anyting is possable in an election but I`ll have to see Kerry defeat Bush in Florida to believe it.
So what? Does it really matter who wins? Kerry is socially, politically and fiscally liberal. Bush says he is not but has never seen a spending bill he didn’t like. As for social conservatism, what has he done for that agenda? If it talks like a duck, walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, it’s a duck. Both see the government in the same way, a force for the “social good.” Each may have a slightly different definition, but the end result is the same.
Err…ummm…people..the media couldn’t nail exit polls in the 2000 election, I’m not gonna get meself worked up on a media projection poll with almost 4 months to go. It’s early. Kick back, crank up the blender and enjoy the summer.
Slow news cycle? Insert Elsction Poll.
Relax.
Anyone seen my salt shaker?
Manuel,
I don’t see Florida as Bush country. Florida is probably going to be razor thin again for who ever takes it. Historicly Florida has gone to the GOP. I think in the last 6 elections only Clinton took it in 96 I believe. But there may be a problem for Bush there due to the large military population there. There seems to be a growing dissatisfation with how the military is being stretched and ther strain on the families. I speek from experience on this, my father is retired Air Force, living in Florida and I myself served 8 years in the Navy and I know first hand how stressfull it is on the families when there are long seperations. Frustration builds and that can be reflected in the voting patterns of the families. After all Bush won the state by just over 500 votes, so it will not take much of a shift for Kerry to win it.
Does it really matter who wins?
In a sense, which you point out, no. They’re both big spenders, Kerry’s just honest about it. But in another, very real sense, it does matter. The only 3 arguments that make sense for voting Kerry (and they are all closely related) are as follows:
1) To “punish” the incumbent, and send a message to the White House that the American people will not tolerate such incompetence and anti-liberty policies.
2) Gridlock.
3) As I stated in post above, and this is almost the same things as gridlock, the ‘publicans in Congress only seem to find their conservative roots when there’s a demmycrat in the Oval Office. When’s the last time you heard a big uproar over budget and spending? Oh, back in the early 90’s, against big-spender Clinton. The GOP won control of Congress running on a broad platform of fiscal reform, based on fiscal conservatism. They pointed out all the pork and excess spending in the budgets under the democrats, and vowed to fix it, cut spending, balance the budget, eliminate pork, etc. Yay, great, people listened, they won. But now that they’ve been controlling Congress, and now the White House, for awhile, guess what’s happened. Massive spending, massive deficits, huge welfare entitlements and 8000 pork items in the budget (compared to roughly 2000 in the democratic congress’s budget that they reviled). And due to the importance of “party loyalty”, the GOP-controlled congress dare not shoot down many of Bush’s wild spending bills, and vice versa.
But imagine if John Forbed Kerry was indeed in the White House, with all his big-spender liberal schemes just waiting to be sprung into action. Do you think the GOP-controlled congress would let that shit slide like they let Bush’s agenda slide? Oh, HELL no! Once again, we’d hear cries for fiscal conservatism and balanced budgets and spending cuts and welfare reform. Once again, bills would actually die on the floor. And in the other direction, Kerry might actually veto some of Congress’s requests, something that Bush seems to be unwilling to do, lest he piss off any of his GOP pals.
I can’t stand a word Kerry says, but yes, I believe it really does matter. I believe the end result won’t be the same, as long as we have partisan infighting putting a crimp in both party’s plans. Oddly enough, for all the flak that partisan fighting catches, it’s actually the best thing Lady Liberty has going for her.
Bob, You make a valid argument concerning Florida and I`ve taken this into consideration. I do believe that Kerry missed out on a great opportunity to take the lions share of the military vote when he voted against the 87 billion and this too has caused grumblings amongst famalies of service personnel and you may be right in your assesment of the state but I do believe that the Jewish vote in Florida will increase in Bush`s favor by a significant amount.
As pointed out by some Jewish bloggers, the “Jewish vote” isn’t simply swayed by US-Israel relations. Shocking as it might seem, Jewish voters vote on whatever their pet issues are…just like you do. Shocking.
Okay, just one of my pet peeves I needed to air. As usual, I’m with Frank on this one. When was the last time these media polls actually predicted anything?
Thank you Supergenius. Would you like salt on the rim of your margarhita?
I think I should run for office. I’ll run on the palm tree and hammock platform.
I’ve figured it out, Frank N is really Jimmy Buffet undercover.
Dem Panic Watch
(Ron Burgundy is off tonight.) From Radley Balko: If you plug the latest battleground state poll results from Real Clear Politics into the L.A. Times’ handy interactive electoral map, the race right now stands at Kerry 322 and Bush 216….
Bush and his regime will hopefully be brought down in November. The current administration has plenty of secrets that smack of conspiracy. For info. on what’s REALLY happening in Washington check out http://lachlanalexander.blogspot.com, and get in line for your microchip.
Jumping to conclusions is not the way to understanding what goes on in Washington. That kind of conspiracy shit doesn’t deserve a response. So I’m not quite sure why I’m bothering. Maybe it’s just to not let a comments section on one of the few logical blogs out there end with such bullshit.
This is all meaningless … the AP says just the opposite, Bush would take the election if it were held now. Polls are worthless, IMO.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040724/D841CACO0.html
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