TheAgitator.com
Meet Your Kingmakers
Monday, January 19th, 2004
Three faces from an MSNBC story on the voters who will determine the winner of the Iowa caucuses. I’ve always found it a little odd that both parties — but particularly the Democrats — give Iowa and New Hampshire so much say in winnowing down the presidential field. These are two states that demographically are least representative of the country as a whole. Iowa is 91% white, New Hampshire 95%. The U.S. is 69%. Iowa is 2% black, New Hampshire is 1%. The country is 12%. Both states are more rural, more affluent, and better educated.
The Democrats of course had a chance to reward their most reliable voting block — blacks — by recognizing the D.C. primary, held last week. It also would have been a symbolic move by the party to nod in the direction of D.C. voting rights — something the Democrats are always harping on (mostly because it would give them two new votes in the Senate, on in the House).
But they declined. The DNC brushed D.C. off, and all of the candidates for the most part paid very little attention.
UPDATE: Some of you think I’m off-base or — egad! — unlibertarian with this post. I really don’t think there’s any “libertarianism” at stake here (there needn’t be in everything). I’m not calling for the federal government to regulate the primaries. The parties are free to run their nomination process as they please. And I’m free to criticize them. And you’re free to criticize me for criticizing them.
My first point is that if I were running a national party, I think I’d want the states that get first crack at winnowing down the field to be as representative of the general electorate as possible, so my candidate has both a broad base of support and the support of a fairly realistic sampling of the party.
My second point is that if I were black (and I’m the first to admit that anytime someone begins a sentence with those words, what follows should be taken with a fistfull of salt), I’d wonder why the Democrats — whom blacks vote for at a 90%+ clip — filter their candidates through two lily-white states, which between them usually cut the field in half — all before a significant black population even has the chance to go to the polls. And when a state (okay, D.C.) with significant black influence — both in sheer numbers and in symbolism — attempts to move up in the calendar to gain a little clout, the party refuses to recognize the results.
I think that’s a pretty fair criticism. If that somehow stains my “libertarianism,” well, consider it stained, I guess.
I won’t argue with your main point (since you’re welcome to consider anything you want as odd), although I challenge you to name the state with the “ideal” breakdown to represent the country as a whole. Personally, I find it interesting that you seem to consider a truly representative population as one that contains the appropriate percentage of white and black inhabitants. If you’re talking race, why not reference the hispanic populations of these states? Or the Asian populations? Native Americans? If you’re talking numbers, why not delve into the male/female population breakdowns…surely members of one of these groups should be encouraged to work up some degree of indignation at the lack of appropriate representation?
Here’s a suggestion – and I know this is radical – why not try NOT assuming that all members of a particular group, however defined*, must and will hold similar political views, and that those views will always differ dramatically from those held by other groups.
*OK, who am I kidding…we MUST break down the population by race…things just wouldn’t make sense otherwise.
“The Democrats of course had a chance to reward their most reliable voting block — blacks — by recognizing the D.C. primary, held last week. It also would have been a symbolic move by the party to nod in the direction of D.C. voting rights — something the Democrats are always harping on (mostly because it would give them two new votes in the Senate, on in the House).”
It would be disasterous for the Democrats to draw more attention to D.C., the place they have the firmest grip on.
There’s a pretty good chance that, had all the candidates been in the race, Sharpton would have been the plurality winner in D.C. He polled over 50% in 3 of the 8 wards, and was the plurality winner in 4 of them. He was only outpolled by Carol Mosely-Braun in majority-white Ward 3. The only reason he didn’t win a plurality in is that Dean sucked up all the votes for the credible candidates.
With all that in mind, would you have wanted a binding DC primary if you were Terry McAuliffe?
(Also bear in mind that blacks will likely make up 50% or more of the electorate in the South Carolina primary, which may be the pivotal state in this election.)
The Man
Radley Balko shows the faces of the people who will, in all likelihood, decide the Democratic nomination. Here’s a hint: they look like Howard Dean’s cabinet in Vermont did…
Who cares who is the “most reliable voting block.” What state represents the country’s demographics the best. When are we going to stop breaking this country down into little ethic pieces. We are all Americans!!!!! The only thins I have out of the Democrats is what is wrong with the White House. They have offered no soultions to the problems we face and I for once would like a race run on what the canidates can do for the country and not on the ethic back ground of the voters.
Radley,
A little odd to see a libertarian fall in with lefty racialism, even a little bit. So what if Iowa and NH are “whiter” than the rest of the country? South Carolina is “blacker” — should we move that primary down, too?
Odd that the Democrats did not nod to the black vote? Get serious, the Democrats have taken the black vote for granted for forty years. What allows them to do this is that blacks in this country refuse to hold them accountable.
Democrats have done so little to help minorities over the last few decades (unless you consider passing quota systems and welfare as good, which they are not). The truth is that the dems have no reason to help minorities. Why waste money and political clout on a group you know will vote for you, and lets face it, that is all politicians care about. Lip service and yelling that Republicans are racists is a lot cheaper and easier than actually doing anything.
As soon as the black population in this country has the guts to get real leadership and throw racists like Sharpton and Jackson to the wolves then their situation will improve. Without racism these two have nothing, so they create and cry racism regardless of facts.
These are the same people who accuse any black person who succeeds in the country as a free thinker, such as Clarence Thomas, Condi Rice and Thomas Sowell, of being Uncle Toms.
John: great point, Democrats own DC and get to force all their wonderful policies on the people of the district. It’s turned out real great for them huh?
Sounds to me like Radley was just pointing out a democratic hypocrisy and not agreeing with their racial rhetoric.
All of the existing commentors seemingly fail to recognize a basic rhetorical tactic: arguing from another’s viewpoint. His proposition is stunningly genius from in the mindset of a liberal Democrat. What he says is exactly how they think.
There is a lot of validity to his argument, as well. Blacks *do* vote as a block, largely, so there’s no “assuming” about it (I find the first commentor’s choice of pseudonym perhaps telling). Hispanics continue to show low voter turn-out, rendering their political choice of little significance nationally (alas, and their loss; would that they voted more often). Asians are perhaps the most integrated ethnic group in America and rarely, if ever, vote as a block.
I’m surprised there are so many people attacking Radley’s post. I didn’t expect any such responses. I think he’s right on.
“in the mindset”, not “from in the mindset”. Durned typos.
It doesn’t make sense to spend time, effort and money trying to win over 12% of the country when you are going to take 90+% of that 12% anyway. Especially when Sharpton is going to skew the numbers so far as to make them meaningless.
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