The AFC East.

1st Place — Miami Dolphins — 10-6.

Poor Miami. The new alignment sent Indianapolis to the leagues weakest division, not to mention the warm-weather games that come with it (Jacksonville, Texas and Tennessee). Miami was left behind in the AFC East, maybe the league’s toughest division, and has to travel to Buffalo, New England and New Jersey. Still, Miami may have the best defense in the AFC. The Fins d-line and linebacking corps might be the best in the league. The secondary needs some work, as interceptions dropped off last year, but d-line pressure alone should allow for more turnovers this year. The offense is much improved, too. Chris Chambers had a solid rookie season at wideout, and should break into the league’s elite this year. They also acquired Ricky Williams, who I think will compete with Edgerrin James for the rushing title. The only weakness I see is QB Jay Fiedler. He’s got no arm, no mobility, no grace. That alone will prevent an advance beyond the divisional playoffs.

2nd Place — New England Patriots — 9-7

Yeah, I know, Super Bowl champs, blah, blah, blah. I still don’t think this team is for real. They got to the Super Bowl on a bad call and some crappy weather. They then played the game of their lives. Bill Belichick knows defense, so this team won’t be awful. But I’m not yet sold on Tom Brady. And Antowan Smith showed up at camp late and out of shape. I smell bad chemistry.

3rd Place — New York Jets — 9-7

Lots of people are picking the Jets to surprise and win this division. I’m not buying it. It’s just too tough. They have no o-line and a washed-up QB in Testeverde. Curtis Martin will get you to nine wins. Not much further.

4th Place — Bufallo Bills — 4-12

No defensive line. Running back by committee. In Drew Bledsoe, a quarterback that you have to root for (he’s just a great all-around guy), but whose confidence has to be shaken after Tom Brady stole his job in New England. Nobody’s afraid of Travis Henry. The three solid defenses in this division will drop back into coverage and make Bledsoe miserable. Eric Moulds will be lucky to catch 80 balls this year.

The AFC South

Indianapolis Colts — 11-5 — 1st Place

A little hometown favoritism? Absolutely. Wishfull thinking? Probably. This year, Tony Dungy will be proven a fraud or a genius. Under scenario fraud, Indy’s offense sputters, and its defense shows no improvement over last year. It quickly becomes apparent that Dungy had so much defensive talent in Tampa Bay, no one could screw it up, and that he wasted the skills of Mike Alstott, Warrick Dunn and Keyshawn Johnson with his complete offensive ineptitude. Scenario genius sees Indy’s offense keep its pace from the previous two years, and Dungy’s defensive scheme takes root and vastly improves the conditions and field position under which Peyton Manning goes to work. The Colts then plan for a deep run into the playoffs. Guess which scenario I’m banking on?

Tennessee Titans — 10-6 — 2nd Place — AFC Wild Card

Another team that could “bust out” or “just plain bust” this year. It all boils down to Eddie George. Was his poor performance (which wrecked my fantasy team, by the way) last year really the result of a sore toe, or was it something more troubling? If George turns it around, Steve McNair gets more time to throw the ball, and the Tennessee defense doesn’t spend 60% of the game on the field. That’ll get them into the playoffs. I think George will bounce back. And Tennessee has a nice season.

Jacksonville Jaguars — 5-11 — 3rd Place

The Jags ruined themselves for the next five years by blowing open their salary cap. Expect Fred Taylor to drop with an injury any day now. Expect Mark Brunnel to call his agent in a desperate attempt to save his career. This team is awful, and will be for some time.

Houston Texans — 3-13 — 4th Place

Despite the NFL’s generous provisions to help expansion squads get off the ground running, the Texans have shown zero promise in the preseason. I think a rookie quarterback on an expansion team is a huge mistake. Rookie QBs need time to build confidence. David Carr’s fans might be stoked that he’s getting prime PT so early in his career, but I think it’s going to kill said career before it ever gets started. He went down with a bruised knee last night. If it keeps out a few games, it might be the best thing that could’ve happen to him in August.

Rest of the AFC is on the way…..

This entry was posted on Saturday, August 31st, 2002 at 10:44 am by Radley Balko and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.